Sixty-seven teams are eligible to win the NCAA Tournament, but only four possess a reasonable chance, according to the professionals.
By that, we mean the BetMGM oddsmakers.
Duke, Florida, Auburn and Houston are the only teams with odds lower than 15/1.
The Blue Devils are the betting favorite at 3/1, followed by the Gators (3.5/1), Tigers (4/1) and Cougars (6/1).
From there, the odds drop all the way to Alabama at 15/1.
And BetMGM isn’t the only service forecasting a top-heavy tournament. FanDuel and ESPNBet have similar tiers.
This is the first time Duke has been the consensus favorite since 2019, per ESPN. And as our breakdown below suggests, we think the Blue Devils are worth the investment.
Here we go: 67 games and 67 winners. Feel free to thank us later.
South
Overview: Auburn is the tournament’s No. 1 overall seed and, as a reward, could face Louisville in the second round — in Lexington. North Carolina had no business making the field and the NCAA selection committee should be embarrassed, but that won’t stop the Tar Heels from winning a game or two. (March is mad, after all.) Iowa State will be without star guard Keshon Gilbert (injury) for the entirety of the tournament, undercutting the Cyclones’ Final Four prospects.
Potential Cinderella: UC San Diego
Top player: Auburn’s Johni Broome
Best coach: Michigan State’s Tom Izzo
First round: Auburn over Saint Francis, Creighton over Louisville, UC San Diego over Michigan, Texas A&M over Yale, North Carolina over San Diego State, Iowa State over Lipscomb, New Mexico over Marquette and Michigan State over Bryant
Second round: Auburn over Creighton, Texas A&M over UC San Diego, North Carolina over Iowa State and Michigan State over New Mexico
Sweet 16: Auburn over Texas A&M and Michigan State over North Carolina
Elite Eight: Michigan State over Auburn
West
Overview: The toughest region based on the quality of the top seeds with the SEC champion (Florida), the Big East winner (St. John’s) and a Big 12 powerhouse (Texas Tech) with Final Four potential. So stacked is the West that the two-time defending champs (UConn) are an afterthought and the AP preseason No. 1 (Kansas) is seeded seventh. The bottom of the region is Hall of Fame corner with coaches Bill Self, John Calipari and Rick Pitino gathered for showdowns.
Potential Cinderella: Drake
Top player: Florida’s Walter Clayton
Best coach: Pitino
First round: Florida over Norfolk State, Oklahoma over UConn, Memphis over Colorado State, Maryland over Grand Canyon, Drake over Missouri, Texas Tech over UNC Wilmington, Kansas over Arkansas and St. John’s over Omaha
Second round: Florida over Oklahoma, Maryland over Memphis, Texas Tech over Drake and Kansas over St. John’s
Sweet 16: Florida over Maryland and Texas Tech over Kansas
Elite Eight: Florida over Texas Tech
East
Overview: Duke is the prohibitive favorite assuming forward Cooper Flagg is healthy (and even if he’s not), but another elite talent lurks one pairing below the Blue Devils. Baylor guard VJ Edgecombe is a likely top-five pick in the NBA Draft. There are several fascinating style-of-play clashes with go-go BYU facing methodical VCU and Saint Mary’s possibly playing Alabama in the second round. Don’t overlook a collision of former Pac-12 schools in Seattle if Arizona and Oregon win their openers.
Potential Cinderella: Akron
Top player: Flagg
Best coach: Oregon’s Dana Altman
First round: Duke over American, Baylor over Mississippi State, Oregon over Liberty, Arizona over Akron, Brigham Young over VCU, Wisconsin over Montana, Saint Mary’s over Vanderbilt and Alabama over Robert Morris
Second round: Duke over Baylor, Arizona over Oregon, Wisconsin over Brigham Young and Alabama over Saint Mary’s
Sweet 16: Duke over Arizona and Wisconsin over Alabama
Elite Eight: Duke over Wisconsin
Midwest
Overview: The committee did Houston no favors with a possible second-round matchup against Gonzaga, which is seeded eighth but ranks ninth (in the country) in the efficiency metrics. If the Cougars reach the Sweet 16, their path widens. Don’t sleep on Illinois, which has a future NBA lottery pick in guard Kasparas Jakucionis. The juiciest first-round game matches McNeese State coach Will Wade against his alma mater, Clemson.
Potential Cinderella: McNeese State
Top player: Purdue’s Braden Smith
Best coach: Houston’s Kelvin Sampson
Related Articles
Selection Sunday winners, losers: SEC, Big 10 dominate amid UNC controversy
Selection Sunday preview: No. 1 seeds, bubble teams, UNC’s fate, SEC bids
Rebuilt Pac-12 pondering minimum investment standards in revenue-sharing era
Mailbag: ACC, Big 12 hoops supremacy threatened by wealthy Big Ten, SEC
WBB Selection Sunday outlook: UCLA, USC on track for No. 1 seeds
First round: Houston over SIU Edwardsville, Gonzaga over Georgia, McNeese State over Clemson, High Point over Purdue, Illinois over Xavier, Kentucky over Troy, UCLA over Utah State and Tennessee over Wofford
Second round: Houston over Gonzaga, McNeese State over High Point, Illinois over Kentucky and Tennessee over UCLA
Sweet 16: Houston over McNeese State and Illinois over Tennessee
Elite Eight: Houston over Illinois
Final Four
Overview: It has been a decade since three No. 1 seeds reached the Final Four, which means we’re due for top-line dominance. (Of note: The only non-No. 1 seed to reach the semifinal round in 2015 was Michigan State.) For all the attention heaped on Flagg, Duke has two other starters projected for the lottery portion of the NBA Draft in guard Kon Knueppel and big man Khaman Maluach. Florida’s guards are elite. Houston’s toughness is unsurpassed, and Michigan State has Izzo. But the Blue Devils are fabulous at both ends of the court and the class of the tournament.
Semifinals: Duke over Houston and Florida over Michigan State
Championship: Duke 84, Florida 73
*** Send suggestions, comments and tips (confidentiality guaranteed) to [email protected] or call 408-920-5716
*** Follow me on the social media platform X: @WilnerHotline
