Brigham Young begins play in the NCAA Tournament on Thursday with a first-round date with VCU in the East regional.
And so we ask: Will the real Cougars stand up?
Or bow out?
Or revert to any of their previous forms?
Whereas everyone else played one regular season, the Cougars essentially played four — such were the abrupt changes in trajectories, dynamics, successes and failures across four fascinating months in Provo.
For the uninitiated, the light-headed or the simply confused, here’s a quick recap:
Season I: The Cougars were an afterthought on the national scene in November and December, and for good reason. They played a pillowy-soft non-conference schedule and lost to the only quality team they faced, Mississippi.
Season II: Picked to finish ninth in the Big 12 media poll, the Cougars played the part of a mid-level finisher, losing six of their first 12 games, including a one-point defeat at Utah.
Season III: After a lopsided loss at Cincinnati in early February, the Cougars morphed into a juggernaut. They crushed Kansas, won at Arizona and Iowa State and entered the Big 12 tournament with an eight-game winning streak. Along the way, they earned that most coveted of media designations: “The team nobody wants to play.”
Season IV: One team wanted to play BYU, and that team was Houston. The top seed in the Big 12 tournament demolished BYU in the semifinals, powering to a 21-point halftime lead and a 74-54 victory. So complete was BYU’s face plant that the game stands as a season unto itself — a team firing on all cylinders instantly reduced to ash and rubble, its fears realized, doubts rekindled and flaws exposed.
Now comes March Madness and its unforgiving history of unmasking frauds. At least one version of the Cougars on display during the regular season was fully fraudulent. We just don’t know which one.
Maybe the second iteration, which staggered through the early weeks of conference play, was the real BYU.
Perhaps the powerhouse on display in February was BYU in its truest form.
(Or perhaps it’s the same version of BYU that we have seen in recent springs — the version that has not won a first-round game since the Jimmer Fredette era.)
Reality would be easier to spot without the debacle in the Big 12 tournament. Houston is one of the best teams in the country — a powerhouse defensively that oozes athleticism, toughness and perimeter skill. There is no shame (none, zero, zip) in losing to coach Kelvin Sampson’s team.
That said, there are lesser versions of Houston scattered throughout the NCAA Tournament. And from what we saw last weekend in Kansas City, a lesser version of Houston would give BYU trouble.
Which version of BYU presents itself? Our hunch is the Cougars perform at a level comparable to what we witnessed in the stretch, with an offense that approached unstoppable and a defense that was, more often than not, good enough.
But success in March Madness is tethered to matchups and momentum and the presence of bracket busters in any given region.
On Sunday afternoon, in the hours immediately following the 68-team reveal, BYU constituents bemoaned the No. 6 seed as at least one line too low. But a closer look suggests the Cougars were extremely fortunate.
Teams are placed into the bracket based on their position on what’s referred to as the ‘true seed’ list — the selection committee’s straight ranking of all 68 teams.
The Cougars were No. 21 on the true seed list, or the highest-ranked of the teams placed on the No. 6 line. Had they been one spot higher, they would have made the No. 5 line. Instead, that spot (No. 20) went to Memphis.
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If advancement as deep in the tournament as possible is the goal, the Cougars are vastly better off with a No. 6 seed and avoiding the No. 1 until the Elite Eight.
That’s true every March, but especially in this top-heavy tournament: Auburn, Duke, Florida and Houston are the betting favorites, each holding championship odds of less than 8/1.
Nobody else is lower than 14/1 (Tennessee).
Had the Cougars been a single spot higher on the true seed list, they would have been slotted to face a No. 1 seed in the Sweet 16.
Instead, they will draw the East region’s No. 2 (defensively challenged Alabama) or No. 3 (travel-weary Wisconsin) in the Sweet 16 — presuming BYU gets that far, of course — and delay any collision with top-seeded Duke until the regional final.
That delay offers one more chance for the Blue Devils to lose, one more chance for a key player to get injured, one more chance for the Cougars to gain confidence and solve the glitches that surfaced against Houston.
The No. 6 seed wasn’t a slight. It was a gift.
Now, we’ll see which BYU team is on the receiving end.
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