Projecting success seven months before the start of the regular season was difficult enough before the transfer portal and immediate eligibility for multi-time transfers collided last spring. In the current environment, accuracy is effectively impossible.

Which is precisely why the Hotline finds the subject endlessly fascinating.

That said, we’ll update the rankings after the spring transfer window and NBA Draft decisions. By then, in theory, a morsel of clarity will have emerged.

Also considered (alphabetically): Arkansas, Baylor, Boise State, Clemson, Illinois, Indiana, LSU, Marquette, Maryland, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Missouri, Oregon, Saint Mary’s, San Diego State, South Carolina, Texas, Texas A&M, Wisconsin, USC and Villanova

1. Connecticut: The two-time defending champions took Florida to the wire in the second round and won 24 games with an inexperienced leading cast. But with Solo Ball and (presumably) Alex Karaban returning — and if Georgia transfer Silas Demary makes the expected impact — the Huskies should be well-positioned for a Big East title and Final Four run.

2. Houston: We don’t know who’s staying. We don’t care who’s leaving. We didn’t bother researching who’s arriving. As long as Kelvin Sampson is running the show in Houston, the Cougars warrant a spot near the top of any forecast published anywhere at any time.

3. Duke: The Blue Devils will lose Cooper Flagg to the NBA, of course, and probably Kon Kneuppel and Khaman Maluach, as well. No worries. The Boozer brothers are on the way. Cameron and Cayden, the sons of former Duke star Carlos Boozer, will help offset the attrition. But we wonder if the collapse Saturday night against Houston will impact the overall vibe in Durham, even if the players involved have moved on.

4. St. John’s: It took just two seasons for Rick Pitino to revitalize the Red Storm. His third year will bring expectations and pressure, so there’s significant downside risk to our projection. But when in doubt, we always side with Pitino, whose class of newcomers includes Arizona State transfer Joson Sanon and Bryce Hopkins, a Providence transfer whose career began at Kentucky.

5. Michigan: The Wolverines will lose several key pieces from their run to the Sweet 16 under first-year coach Dusty May. But they might keep center Danny Wolf and have secured a commitment from the top player in the 247Sports transfer portal, UAB big man Yaxel Lendeborg (if he doesn’t turn pro). And don’t forget: Michigan has a commitment from North Carolina transfer Elliot Cadeau to bolster the backcourt.

6. Brigham Young: This lofty forecast could nonetheless fall short if Richie Saunders and Egor Demin return and join mega-recruit A.J. Dybansta to fuel a run to the Final Four. Or it could prove overly optimistic if the Cougars lose their core and have to reload around Dybansta in his one and only season in Provo. Either way, BYU is relevant nationally for the first time in eons.

7. Kentucky: The arrival of transfer Jaland Lowe, who averaged 17 points and 5.5 assists for Pittsburgh, will help second-year coach Mark Pope prevent any backsliding in Lexington. If leading scorer Ortega Ohew returns, Big Blue could build on its momentum and win the SEC.

8. Creighton: If you’re not familiar with the Iowa City-to-Omaha pipeline, that’s understandable. It wasn’t a thing until this spring. But with Josh Dix and Owen Freeman crossing the state line — they combined for 31 points per game at Iowa — the Bluejays should be back in the NCAAs and a threat for the Sweet 16.

9. Louisville: From the department of big-gains-offsetting-big-losses, we present the 2025-26 Cardinals. Coach Pat Kelsey did a first-rate job in his rookie season and, despite significant attrition, is loading up with impact high school recruits (hello, Mikel Brown Jr.) and transfers (Xavier’s Ryan Conwell). The sport is better when Louisville is relevant. That should be the case next season.

10. Auburn: The Tigers are losing SEC Player of the Year Johni Broome and several other top-line contributors. If not for the expected return of star freshman Tahaad Pettiford and wing Chad Baker-Mazara, they would be far closer to the bottom than the top of these rankings.

11. Texas Tech: Darrion Williams just announced he’s entering the portal and exploring his NBA options. But if leading scorer JT Toppin returns — he isn’t viewed as a first-round NBA prospect — the Red Raiders could be as good as the version that pushed Florida to the brink in the Elite Eight. Don’t be surprised if Grant McCasland is the hottest coach in the land this time next year.

12. NC State: Our top sleeper pick for 2026, to the extent that a Will Wade team could be considered a sleeper. The former LSU and McNeese State coach, who was caught on the FBI wiretap during his tenure in Baton Rouge, is one of the best in the game. It won’t take long — we’re talking months, not years — for him to turn the Wolf Pack into an upper-echelon ACC team.

13. UCLA: The Bruins landed an elite point guard when New Mexico’s Donovan Dent opted to return home for his senior season — he’s from Riverside — and nabbed a gifted big man in the portal, as well (Michigan State’s Xavier Booker). Add expected returnees Eric Dailey Jr. and Skyy Clark, and coach Mick Cronin should have the personnel to contend in the Big Ten and reach the second weekend of the NCAAs.

14. Alabama: The Crimson Tide will lose star point guard Mark Sears, but a handful of contributors are due back (Aden Holloway and Latrell Wrightsell Jr., to name two). If the supporting cast is ready for leading roles, Alabama will thrive once again in the SEC. And keep an eye on Florida State transfer Taylor Bol Bowen, whose impact could be substantial.

15. Purdue: What we said about Houston — the head coach and culture matter more than the roster itself — is also true of the Boilermakers. But Matt Painter will undoubtedly benefit from another season with Braden Smith, one of the top point guards in any conference.

16. Iowa State: Admittedly, the Hotline expected more from the Cyclones in the regular season and, especially, in the postseason. (They lost in the second round to a lower seed). That sentiment could be affecting our view of ISU’s ceiling in 2025-26 given the potential return of Milan Momcilovic, Joshua Jefferson and Tamin Lipsey. But at some point, the Cyclones need to conjure a deep run in the NCAAs.

17. Arkansas: Yes, star freshman Boogie Fland declared for the NBA Draft, but the March momentum should extend into next season for the Razorbacks, who have one of the nation’s top recruiting classes — high school recruiting classes, that is — arriving in the fall.

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18. Tennessee: Despite significant personnel losses — the departure list starts with standout guard Chaz Lanier — the Volunteers should remain highly relevant in the SEC. One reason for their presumed staying power: Maryland transfer Ja’Kobi Gillespie (15 points, five assists per game) will run the offense.

19. Iowa: Our second sleeper pick is based on the arrival of coach Ben McCollum, who takes charge of the Hawkeyes after his successful one-year run at Drake. (His stint with the Bulldogs followed a long, successful run at Northwest Missouri State.) McCollum’s lineup will feature guard Bennett Stirtz, who averaged 19 points for Drake and should be one of the most productive players in the Big Ten.

20. Florida: The regression in Gainesville could be significant without senior guard Walter Clayton Jr. The best player in the NCAA Tournament won’t be easily replaced, particularly in the final minutes of close games. Coach Todd Golden should maintain a tournament-caliber program given his acumen and Florida’s resources, but the SEC is unforgiving.

21. North Carolina: The roster is in flux, but this much seems apparent: If the Tar Heels aren’t listed in the final AP poll of the 2025-26 season, a coaching search will be underway in Chapel Hill. It’s increasingly difficult to defend Hubert Davis, who has turned one of the bluest of blue bloods into an above-average program. Arizona transfer Henri Veesaar will help immensely, but more retooling is needed.

22. Gonzaga: By March, this projection could prove far too low. The Bulldogs will have one of the nation’s top frontlines if Graham Ike returns to join skilled sophomore Braden Huff. But we wonder about the state of affairs on the perimeter, where so much seemingly depends on the development of Braeden Smith (previous stop: Colgate) and Jalen Warley (Virginia). Betting against Mark Few is a losing proposition, but it could take the Zags time to coalesce.

23. Michigan State: Because Tom Izzo.

24. Arizona: Who’s left in Tucson? Good question. Caleb Love is (finally) out of eligibility. Henri Veesaar and KJ Lewis entered the transfer portal, and freshman Carter Bryant could jump to the draft. Based on what we know today — and it could be moot in a few hours given the pace of player movement — faith in Tommy Lloyd’s talent acquisition skills is the only reason to believe the Wildcats are worthy of a Top 25 position.

25. Kansas: We aren’t sure the exodus from Lawrence is a bad thing considering the Jayhawks’ disappointing season. (They were No. 1 in the AP preseason poll but finished sixth in the Big 12.) More than enough luster remains — not to mention NIL resources — for coach Bill Self to reload his roster to an acceptable standard. In fact, that process is already underway with the arrival of guard Tre White from Illinois.

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