The Trump administration has talked a big game about transgender teens playing sports in California, but its ability to influence state policy is limited, according to athletic administrators surveyed by this news organization.

Still, the state’s governing body for high school athletics is caught in the crosshairs as the political fight about transgender athlete participation in women’s and girls’ sports continues to boil.

A letter from the office of U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi, announcing a federal Title IX review, arrived at the office of Ron Nocetti, executive director of the California Interscholastic Federation, on Feb. 25. Nocetti, a longtime athletic administrator, was one of three recipients, along with Maine Gov. Janet Mills and Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison.

Bondi announced each state would be investigated over their policies on transgender athlete participation in sports.

Specifically, Bondi wrote, “Requiring girls to compete against boys in sports and athletic events violates Title IX of the Educational Amendments Act of 1972.”

California and its governing body for high school sports, Bondi said, “should be on notice.”

“If the Department of Education’s investigation shows that the Federation is indeed denying girls an equal opportunity to participate in sports and athletic events by requiring them to compete against boys, the Department of Justice stands ready to take all appropriate action to enforce federal law,” Bondi wrote.

The investigation marked new territory in a fight that has only ratcheted up since President Donald Trump took office in January. The DOJ, Bondi wrote, was acting under Trump’s direction to “prioritize enforcement actions against athletic associations that deny girls an equal opportunity to participate in sports and athletic events by requiring them to compete against boys.”

The CIF has been consistent in its response, repeating that it is merely abiding by California law, which states under Section 221.5(f) of the Education Code that a pupil must be permitted to “use facilities consistent with his or her gender identity, irrespective of the gender listed on (their) records.”

While the organization has come under fire from anti-trans advocates for what they interpreted as taking a stance, athletic administrators said CIF would follow whatever direction the state provided.

The CIF does not keep track of the number of transgender girls participating in sports, but about 3.3% of all high school students identified as transgender in a 2023 study by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. At the collegiate level, NCAA president Charlie Baker estimated during a December congressional hearing that of the 510,000 athletes competing under its umbrella, fewer than 10 were transgender.

It’s possible the political winds are shifting. Gov. Gavin Newsom recently made headlines by describing transgender girls’ participation as “deeply unfair,” and across the state line, in Nevada, the state’s athletics association announced earlier this month it will require athletes to adhere to the genders on their birth certificates. California lawmakers, however, rejected proposals this month that would have reversed the state’s current position allowing transgender children and teens to play on sports teams consistent with their gender identities.

Whether the DOJ probe has any teeth comes down to enforcement mechanisms, and the federal government doesn’t have much say in K-12 education.

While about 14% of California’s education budget comes from federal funds, the bulk of those dollars go to programs such as lunch subsidies for low-income students and special education services. No federal money makes its way to the state’s athletic governing body.

In Maine, one of the other states under investigation, funds from the Department of Agriculture were withheld last month for what were described as Title IX violations. In a lawsuit filed this week seeking to reverse the freeze, Attorney General Aaron Frey described the money as “grant funds that go to keeping children fed.”

Clarissa Doutherd, executive director of Parent Voices Oakland, has been fighting since 2021 to maintain three Head Start sites that provide similar services for about 600 kids in Oakland. The program receives $11 billion annually from the Department of Health and Human Services to promote school readiness for about 833,000 children from birth to age 5 in low-income families around the country.

“That fight becomes more complicated when there’s so much uncertainty at the federal level,” Doutherd said. “We’re very concerned. These are often the children whose families are experiencing homelessness or are at risk of housing insecurity (and) food insecurity.”

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The CIF and its regional sections are self-sustaining entities. While it doesn’t fund individual athletic programs — that is up to the schools, which rely on state and district dollars — the organization is responsible for a variety of expenses, including tournament venues, the hiring and training of officials and other administrative costs.

Those tasks would go on uninterrupted in the event federal funds were withheld. The bulk of the CIF’s roughly $7 million operating budget is largely funded by the fees paid by its member schools and ticket sales for championship events.

What appears to be at risk are roughly $16.8 billion in federal dollars that may not affect athletic programs, but would hurt some of the state’s most vulnerable kids.

California was willing to put up a fight during the first Trump administration, filing more than 120 lawsuits over the four years, but the current attorney general, Rob Bonta, has not weighed in yet in defense of the organization. In a statement, Bonta’s office said he was, “committed to protecting and defending the rights of our transgender students and ensuring that all students can enjoy their right to equal education free from discrimination and harassment.”