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NFL schedule release: Power Four should change their approach to scheduling (and start fresh every spring)

May 14, 2025
NFL schedule release: Power Four should change their approach to scheduling (and start fresh every spring)

After two days of mini-reveals — the Black Friday matchup here, international games there — the NFL is unveiling its full 2025 schedule on Wednesday.

In roughly two weeks, college football will announce the kickoff times and TV networks for the opening three weeks, plus Friday games throughout the fall.

Yes, it’s schedule release season in the football world, except one of the two entities does it exactly right; the other, wrong.

College football in general, and the power conferences in particular, could learn a thing or five from the NFL about scheduling. The crafting, the promoting, the unveiling — it’s time for the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten and SEC to completely overhaul their schedule-making process.

Instead of finalizing and announcing the lineup of games for each team during the preceding winter, they should wait until May — like the NFL — in order to account for offseason coaching changes, NFL Draft departures and the immense roster turnover created by the transfer portal.

That would give the conferences a better chance to create balanced schedules and premier matchups.

Naturally, there are obstacles, starting with the schools themselves. They prefer advance notice for home games in order to sell tickets and organize campus festivities. The winter release period also gives fans a longer runway to plan travel and personal events.

But the process was born in the pre-portal era. It no longer works — not if the schools and conferences want the best matchups for their TV partners and College Football Playoff access. In fact, delaying the schedule release until the spring might offer a way to squeeze a few more dollars out of the media partners.

But that’s just one of the two major changes needed. The power conferences should eliminate the multi-year schedule rotations, as well. That’s right, we’re going scorched earth on the entire process, folks.

It’s time the Big Ten did away with its five-year rotation of opponents, called the Flex Protect XVIII model. It’s time the Big 12 dumped its four-year rotation matrix. Same with the ACC, which has opponents scheduled through 2030. (The SEC does not, at this point, have an established multi-year rotation for 2026 and beyond.)

Yes, the conferences should preserve certain rivalry games each year, and it makes sense to block out dates for Homecoming. But otherwise, start from scratch every year, take roster and coaching changes into account, and build the bulk of each team’s schedule in the spring.

It’s a radical concept for an industry rooted, in so many ways, in the 1950s.

But if the schools can share revenue with the players … if Stanford and Wake Forest can be in the same conference … if a player can attend four schools in four years and be eligible immediately at every stop … the sport can muster the willpower to overhaul its antiquated scheduling process.

Here’s our suggestion to create more balance and better matchups: Use a formula that accounts for returning production.

The formula could include returning yardage for running backs and receivers; it could include attempts, yards per attempt and efficiency ratings for quarterbacks; it could include career starts for offensive and defensive linemen, plus tackles, sacks and passes broken up.

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And in the case of transfers, the formula would include production at the previous school and be weighted to the level of competition. Running for 1,000 yards at the FCS level would be scored slightly lower than running for 1,000 yards in the Group of Five, for example.

The process would produce a total score for each team which, in turn, would become the basis for setting the best possible conference schedules, with competitive balance, TV ratings and CFP access in mind.

It’s not perfect, because returning production doesn’t correlate directly to wins. But it would offer each conference a better chance for scheduling success.

Our plan assuredly would face stiff resistance. The prospect of not hosting Ohio State or Michigan for an indefinite period would be cause for alarm at Purdue, for example. The Big Ten could compromise by using a fixed, multi-year rotation for a portion of each team’s schedule — thereby assuring certain matchups regularly — and leaving the other half open to a flex process based on offseason roster movement.

Everything about the sport is changing, and not incrementally. It’s time to overhaul one aspect that has been in place for decades.

Stop setting the conference schedules years in advance, follow the NFL’s model, account for the transfer portal and wait until the spring.

*** Send suggestions, comments and tips (confidentiality guaranteed) to [email protected] or call 408-920-5716

*** Follow me on the social media platform X: @WilnerHotline

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