The realignment wave that began with thunderous news from SEC country four years ago has touched 11 conferences, altered the future for dozens of schools and shifted the balance of power within the NCAA. When will it end?

In tiny Farmington, Utah, 20 miles north of Salt Lake City along Interstate 15, executives from the Big Sky are pondering that very question.

Will their proud, 61-year-old conference, which thrives in the Football Championship Subdivision, be impacted by the same forces that engorged the SEC and Big Ten, decimated the Pac-12 and restructured so many others?

That shredded the Mountain West last fall, then plucked the biggest brand from the West Coast Conference, roiled the Big West and, finally, whacked the WAC this week when Utah Valley announced it would join the Big West in the summer of 2026?

The Wolverines are an unlikely player in a chain reaction that started July 30, 2021, when Texas and Oklahoma accepted membership offers from the SEC. But they won’t be the last.

The next move could come this week, this month of this summer. The Pac-12 needs at least one more football-playing school. The Mountain West could expand again.

Either way, the Big Sky is ready.

“We’re talking about it all the time,” commissioner Tom Wistrcill said. “We had our (conference) meetings last week in Portland. It was a topic of conversation.”

Wistrcill’s comments came during a recent wide-ranging conversation on ‘Canzano and Wilner: The Podcast.” A former administrator in the Big Ten (at Minnesota) and athletic director (Akron), Wistrcill addressed everything from the “coup” orchestrated by the power conferences to the future of the NCAA Tournament and the state of the Big Sky.

“We do have plans together,” he continued. “It’s kind of a decision-making tree: If this happens, then we look at these three options; if this happens, it’s these two options. We’ve talked through all those …

“We have a good plan together if one of the eight things we think could happen, happen. If Nos. 9 and 10 happen, then we’ll have to adjust. There are just a lot moving pieces that all are coming to a head at the same time.”

Those pieces include:

— An economic revolution

The House v. NCAA lawsuit settlement was approved Friday evening by Judge Claudia Wilken. The landmark case created a new financial model for college sports. Schools at the top of FBS football will share $20.5 million with athletes beginning July 1. (The amount will increase over time as revenues soar.) Lower down the food chain, the shared amounts will be smaller.

— College Football Playoff changes

The 2026 season marks the start of a new contract cycle for the CFP. The revenue model was agreed to last spring, but a new format will be set later this year. All of it tilts heavily in favor of the Big Ten, which favors a format based on automatic qualifiers, and the SEC, which prefers a model that’s heavy on at-large berths.

— Power Conference control

The Big Ten, SEC, ACC and Big 12 are methodically staking out greater control of the landscape. Their most controversial agenda item is expansion of the NCAA Tournament to 72 or 76 teams, but the quartet also created (along with the Pac-12) the College Sports Commission. The CSC will provide oversight of the NIL market, with the goal of eliminating pay-for-play deals funded by booster collectives.

— The transfer portal

The source of so much roster-management chaos was not impacted by the House lawsuit settlement. Only antitrust protection from Congress or a collectively bargained agreement between the schools and the athletes can end the lawsuits over eligibility and restrict player movement.

(Current labor law indicates the players would need to unionize in order to sign a CBA. But in order to unionize, they must be declared employees — a step the schools have thus far been loath to take.)

— Western realignment

Closer to Big Sky headquarters, the Pac-12 and Mountain West have been seeking media rights deals and finalizing their membership structures for the summer of 2026.

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For both, the process appears to have paused while they attempt to negotiate two lawsuits with more than $100 million at stake. On May 19, they began mediation over the poaching penalty and exit fee cases. Three weeks later, they have not resolved the disputes — at least, they haven’t publicly disclosed a resolution.

“One of the attorneys I talked to said it’s highly unusual to have it last this long,” Wistrcill said. “So why is it lasting this long? Obviously, it’s got to be about money. The implications of the decision just have to be so dramatic, one way or the other.

“I get the feeling they’re just staring at each other because a lot happens after that, depending on what the outcome could be.”

If the outcome favors the Pac-12, the Mountain West could destabilize as UNLV and Air Force potentially pursue membership in the Pac-12 and American, respectively.

“If the Mountain West loses a bunch of members, they have to decide (if) they want to survive,” Wistrcill said.

“If they want to survive, they could come calling to some Big Sky schools. And that could have a dramatic impact on us.”

Might the Mountain West attempt to backfill with the Montana schools that help anchor the Big Sky?

How will Sacramento State’s departure impact the conference? (The Hornets have filed a waiver to become an Independent in the FBS.)

Clarity remains elusive as realignment rocks the West four years after butterflies flapped their wings in Austin and Norman.

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