Pac-12 media rights deal: Predictions for the duration, valuation and partners as the conference closes in

The Pac-12 is on the brink of securing the next piece to its multi-year reclamation project. A media rights deal could be announced this week but should be sealed before the month concludes.

Heck, the agreement could become public before you read the following Hotline predictions. Yes, we’re going there. Where’s the fun in waiting for facts?

The following forecast is based on information and insight collected over the course of months, not up-to-date information provided by sources. (Only a handful of people know the details, and they aren’t talking.)

Our goal is to provide fans with a reasonable range of outcomes in key categories to avoid surprises when the deal becomes public.

And please note: We aren’t plunging into the membership issue here. The conference must add at least one all-sports school by July 1, 2026 to meet certification requirements. (We expect that school to be Texas State.)

Although the Pac-12 could disclose the identity of member No. 9 when it reveals the media deal, our hunch is that decision will be announced separately.

Here we go.

Term length prediction: Five years

Context: The Pac-12’s media rights contract cycle begins next summer when the five Mountain West schools and Gonzaga officially join the conference. A five-year deal would conclude at the end of the 2030-31 competition year.

That’s a critical window for the industry. The Big Ten’s media deal ends in 2030, followed by the expiration of the Big 12’s agreement in 2031. The men’s NCAA Tournament and College Football Playoff deals terminate in the spring of 2032. Two years later, the SEC’s deal expires.

We suspect members of the rebuilt Pac-12 are wary of signing anything that locks up their media rights well beyond the early 2030s. They want the flexibility to respond to whatever comes next in conference realignment.

That said, a deal that runs for seven or eight years — but includes an opt-out window after five — is also a possibility.

Valuation prediction: $70 million annually

Context: In our view, any deal that pays between $7 million and $10 million per school annually would fall within a reasonable range. At $70 million, each of the nine members would collect $7.8 million.

But there’s a caveat — two caveats, actually:

— If the ninth member only receives a half-share of the media rights revenue in a given year, a $70 million annual deal would spin off $8.3 million to each of the full-share members.

There are numerous examples of partial-share deals across the land, from Stanford and Cal in the ACC to Oregon and Washington in the Big Ten, and we suspect the Pac-12 will pursue that option, at least for a few years, for its ninth member.

— The Pac-12 is expected to implement a revenue distribution model that encourages investment and rewards success. Similar to the plan implemented by the ACC this year, it could be structured to account for factors like TV ratings and College Football Playoff and NCAA Tournament bids. Don’t be surprised if schools at the top end of the revenue chain receive closer to $10 million in media rights in a given year.

One piece of additional context: At $7.8 million annually, the deal would more than double the roughly $3.5 million that Fresno State, Colorado State, Utah State and San Diego State currently receive from the Mountain West. (Boise State has a separate deal and earns slightly more.)

Network partners prediction: The CW, ESPN and Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD)

Context: Assuming the deal spins off between $7 million and $10 million per school per year, the network piece is arguably the most interesting element — and perhaps the most important.

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Whatever the Pac-12 schools collect in media revenue, they won’t come close to matching counterparts in the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten and SEC. That makes exposure for the product absolutely vital.

The rebuilt conference cannot be irrelevant. It must have a significant portion of games on linear television (either over-the-air or cable networks).

We view a package of football broadcasts on The CW as highly likely, considering the existing partnership for 2024-25, with additional inventory on ESPN and the Turner networks owned by WBD.

That said, don’t be surprised if Fox or CBS is involved instead of, or in addition to, ESPN or WBD. The Pac-12 could have as many as four network partners.

Fans should expect a sizable number of games to air on streaming platforms, as well. That is increasingly the way of the world in college sports, for both football and basketball.

The other component of high interest to the Hotline, which may or may not be addressed in the media rights announcement: the football schedule.

How many games per season will be slotted on Thursday and Friday?

Will the conference play on Sunday or Monday?

Commissioner Teresa Gould has said the Pac-12 entered the media rights process with a “blank slate” approach, and networks are typically willing to pay for the flexibility to place games in unconventional broadcast slots.

Don’t be surprised if the deal includes a twist, or two.

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