Today’s anxieties of California consumers surrounding Donald Trump’s economic policies are a sharp contrast to some good vibes they felt eight years ago when he first won the presidency.
My trusty spreadsheet reviewed the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index for California for the three months ending in October 2024, just before Trump won his second term, and the three months ending in June. Those swings were compared with what occurred when Trump first won the White House in 2016.
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The results showed California consumers gave Trump better grades eight years ago. The Golden State optimism index, derived from polling shoppers, declined 25% since October. But after Trump first won the White House, California consumer confidence rose 19% in the same time frame.
It’s likely not the “what” but the “how” in play. Trump’s “America First” economic thinking has long run counter to California’s globally oriented economy.
But the differing turns in California confidence could be attributed to the swift and bold actions Trump has taken or proposed this time around. And Trump has warned that initial economic challenges could accompany his policies.
Look inside the confidence index, and you see that in these early days of Trump’s second term, California consumers have taken a harsh view of the current economic climate.
The Conference Board’s “present situation” index, which measures impressions of what’s happening now, is down 23% since October. It rose 30% in the same period eight years ago when Trump’s arrival in Washington was less of an immediate economic jolt.
There’s also a gap in how California consumers see the future vs. eight years ago. The “expectations” index – the view of what’s next – is down 28% since October but rose 10% after Trump’s first election win.
Nationally nervous
It’s not simply a California quirk. U.S. consumers are anxious, too.
The same math shows national confidence is off 11% since October, yet it rose 17% post-election, eight years ago.
The U.S. present situation index is down 8% since October, compared with a 21% gain when Trump won his first term. And expectations are 15% lower since October, compared with a 13% rise after the 2016 election.
Stately speaking
You can also see this confidence gap in the seven other states that the Conference Board tracks.
Consider how Trump has underperformed in his second term to date, as ranked by the most significant drop in confidence in 2025.
Ohio: Confidence has fallen by 18% since October compared with a 14% gain eight years ago.
New York: Off 12% since October vs. up 17% in 2017.
Florida: Off 11% since October vs. up 27% in 2017.
Texas: Off 8% since October vs. up 19% in 2017.
Illinois: Off 8% since October vs. up 53% in 2017.
Michigan: Off 2% since October vs. up 26% in 2017.
Pennsylvania: Up 4% since October vs. up 14% in 2017.
Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at [email protected]
