Santa Cruz health officer: Summer COVID infections elevated but manageable

SANTA CRUZ — What used to be a wave, lessened to a surge and has become a steady sizzle, at least for now.

Since its arrival in 2020, public health experts have come to expect a biannual spike in COVID-19 infections during summer and winter months. But while cases in Santa Cruz County are higher than she’d like for them to be, Health Officer Lisa Hernandez said growth has been steady and manageable so far.

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“I think it’s simmering,” said Hernandez. “Which basically tells you that we’ve still got COVID in the community and it’s still behaving as a contagious disease and, fortunately, it hasn’t overwhelmed the system.”

Wastewater modeling indicates COVID rates have been elevated but basically steady since May, Hernandez said. The county’s “reproductive number,” a modeling metric used to gauge the level of COVID community spread, currently sits just above one, which means the virus is technically spreading, but is doing so at a relatively slow pace.

This trend is reflected statewide as well, as California was listed Tuesday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention as one of 27 states where the virus is likely growing. California’s reproductive number was also just above one and nearly identical to the county’s, according to CDC data.

Cases rising during the year’s warmer months is nothing new, as the county experienced a similar sizzle around this same time last July. However, Hernandez continued, the county appears to be in even better shape compared to last year and is far steadier than two summers ago when the county suffered serious outbreaks at several nursing home facilities that resulted in approximately five deaths or more.

If county modeling holds, virus levels will stay steady all summer, Hernandez added, though schools will be called back into session in August and increased intermingling and indoor activities means the community should remain vigilant.

“I’m hopeful that we’re not going to have any surprises with this virus,” said Hernandez. “However, the nature of the virus is that viruses mutate, so (it’s) still something we need to continue to watch, but I’m hopeful.”

The variant credited with driving this latest rise was identified earlier this year as NB.1.8.1 or “Nimbus,” but its strikingly painful symptoms inspired another more direct moniker: “razor blade throat.”

While this strain has become known for eliciting especially painful sore throats in addition to more common symptoms such as fever, chills and loss of taste, experts have said that there is no evidence to suggest it produces more severe disease compared to other variants and existing vaccines are an effective tool for combatting it.

However, while public health regulators have consistently approved updates to the COVID vaccine while researchers worked to keep pace with ever-changing mutations, Hernandez said much remains unknown about what will be available in this regard once the seasons change.

In June, U.S. Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. — a known anti-vaccine crusader — abruptly dismissed all 17 members of the CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices, which is responsible for providing guidance on updated COVID doses that have been approved by the Food and Drug Administration.

Kennedy reformed the panel with eight handpicked replacements that held a meeting in June but did not discuss or vote on a recommendation for an updated fall dose, Hernandez said. Their next formal meeting has been set for October, but Hernandez is holding out hope that they’ll decide to convene in August to provide COVID vaccine guidance.

In the meantime, Hernandez said that anyone who is eligible and due for a COVID booster should get the recipe that is currently available.

“It is still recommended and is key to preventing severe disease, including for vulnerable groups especially, and it is still being covered by insurance,” she said. “They (the panel) haven’t made a decision, so at this point the vaccine that’s available now is the one that we’re recommending and it is providing excellent coverage.”

According to Hernandez, everyone 6 months or older should receive at least one dose of the 2024-2025 COVID vaccine and adults 65 years and older are recommended two doses separated by six months.

Those 6 months and older who are moderately or severely immunocompromised have also been recommended that same two-dose schedule, and they may receive additional doses in discussion with their health care provider, Hernandez said.