Former Rep. Katie Porter is leading other candidates for California governor, but the contest is still anyone’s game with nearly half of surveyed voters undecided, according to the latest independent poll Tuesday of the nascent race to replace Gov. Gavin Newsom in 2026.
The newly-released survey of nearly 5,000 registered voters throughout California by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies echoes several other polls that have found enthusiasm for Porter, a former Orange County congresswoman who left Congress in January after she ran unsuccessfully for the U.S. Senate last year.
Porter received 17% of the voters’ first picks. Trailing her were Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, a Republican, at 10%, and former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, a Democrat, at 9%.
The pollsters emphasized that many more respondents hadn’t made up their minds yet. Nearly 40% of the voters surveyed said they were undecided.
“She’s got a small lead, let’s put it that way,” said Mark DiCamillo, the institute’s polling director. “I wouldn’t say she’s the favorite. It’s a wide-open race.”
It’s the second independent poll of the governor’s race this month that found Porter leading the field, but with small shares of voters. An earlier poll by Emerson College found 18% of voters favored Porter, followed by 12% who favored Republican Fox News commentator Steve Hilton. The British-born media personality and political advisor has traded barbs with Bianco as the top Republican competing for their party’s backing.
Meanwhile, Porter quickly raked in support from donors when former Vice President Kamala Harris announced late last month that she will not run for governor. A spokesperson for Porter did not respond to a comment request.
In her statement explaining her decision, Harris left the door open for a possible run for president in 2028, which would be her third attempt. But the new survey suggests she’d see less support from voters than another California Democrat: Newsom, who has positioned himself as a national leader of the opposition to President Donald Trump and is speaking openly about his presidential aspirations.
The poll found that 69% of California Democrats would be enthusiastic if Newsom ran for president, compared to 54% for Harris.
The pollsters conducted their survey online from August 11 to August 17 in English and Spanish. The margin of error was plus or minus two percentage points. Some of the voters’ information was provided by Political Data, Inc. The data firm’s vice president, Paul Mitchell, played a leading role in crafting the gerrymandered political districts that California voters will consider in a November special election.
