With California’s congressional maps up in air, campaigns aren’t changing strategies yet

Despite the possibility of a mid-decade redistricting in California, neither the Democratic nor Republican campaign arms for House races have indicated any immediate plans to change their strategies for the 2026 elections.

Proposition 50, the ballot measure that would allow California to adopt new, gerrymandered maps, has put political operations in a bit of a limbo or holding pattern as folks wait for the outcome of the Nov. 4 special election to learn which congressional maps will be in play for next year’s midterm elections.

For now, most political groups and campaigns that the Southern California News Group spoke with indicated they have not altered their campaign strategy or messaging simply because California’s congressional maps may change.

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“Until and after California voters make their voices heard, we are focused on winning back the House,” Anna Elsasser, spokesperson for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said. “We are confident that our candidates’ track record of getting things done for their communities puts them in the best position to win.”

Meanwhile, Christian Martinez, a spokesperson for the National Republican Congressional Committee, projected confidence that Republicans will be victorious in 2026.

“No amount of gerrymandering can save the radical, out-of-touch Democrats who vote to raise taxes, shower illegal immigrants with taxpayer-funded benefits, and abandon public safety,” he said. “Next November, voters will send a clear message: corruption loses, Democrats lose, and California families will win.”

It’s not just national groups who have chosen to stay the course for now.

Members of Congress whose districts would be dramatically altered under California’s proposed new maps aren’t necessarily rushing to change up their strategies for their reelection campaigns, either.

California’s 42nd Congressional District, represented by Rep. Robert Garcia, D-Long Beach, is now set entirely within the more liberal Los Angeles County. But if voters approve the new maps, the district would take in parts of coastal Orange County, including the more conservative communities of Huntington Beach and Newport Beach.

Although Garcia’s district would become less blue — registered Democrats would still outnumber registered Republican voters — it would still be considered a safe seat for the incumbent if voters agree to mid-decade redistricting.

Regardless of which maps are used for the 2026 election, and how voter demographics may change, Garcia said he will continue to advocate for issues he believes voters care about, no matter their party affiliation. That includes fighting to lower costs, root out corruption in government and provide health care to more Americans, he said.

“I’m focused on the big issues — affordability, taking on corruption and making sure we protect our communities,” Garcia said. “I plan on campaigning on the same things I’ve always believed in. … That won’t change.”

Because California’s special election hasn’t taken place, other members of Congress whose districts could be dramatically altered by mid-decade redistricting weren’t interested in discussing possible changes to their campaign strategy this week.

“Rep. (Ken) Calvert is 100% committed to defeating the redistricting ballot measure and not interested in any hypotheticals,” said Jason Gagnon, campaign consultant for the Riverside County lawmaker.

Calvert, R-Corona, represents a district that includes Calimesa, Canyon Lake, Indian Wells, Lake Elsinore, La Quinta, Menifee, Norco, Palm Desert, Palm Springs, Rancho Mirage, Wildomar and parts of Corona, Eastvale and Riverside.

Under Democrats’ gerrymandered maps, Norco and Canyon Lake, which are heavily Republican, would be split up and replaced with more Democratic communities.

Calvert, who narrowly won reelection in 2022 and 2024 in a purple district, is expected to have a more difficult time winning reelection should his district gain Democratic voters.

Although Calvert did not wish to discuss campaign strategies, he did not hesitate to denounce Democrats’ mid-decade redistricting effort, which Newsom and his allies have said they’re only taking in order to counter similar gerrymandering efforts in Texas and other red states.

Calvert, in a statement, said he strongly opposes “the scheme being orchestrated behind closed doors by Sacramento politicians to take constitutionally afforded power away from the Independent Citizens Redistricting Commission and replace it with a process that would allow legislators to draw district maps that are gerrymandered to benefit themselves and their political allies.”