Tesla will derive 80% of its value from Optimus Robot, Musk says

(Bloomberg/Craig Trudell) — Elon Musk is deemphasizing Tesla Inc.’s car business like never before in favor of humanoid robots that are still in development and a ways off from generating revenue.

Tesla’s chief executive officer said Monday the company will derive about 80% of its value from Optimus, the robot initiative he first touted four years ago. Musk made the prediction shortly after Tesla published its latest “master plan,” an oft updated corporate manifesto that mentioned robots for the first time.

“We are building the products and services that bring AI into the physical world,” Tesla said on X, Musk’s social network. “We have been working tirelessly for nearly two decades to create the foundation for this technological renaissance through the development of electric vehicles, energy products and humanoid robots.”

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Musk first published a Tesla master plan in 2006, laying out a road map that the company largely followed: build an electric sports car, then use the money generated to build successively more affordable vehicles.

By contrast, Musk himself recently acknowledged that Tesla has yet to execute his second master plan, published in 2016, which called for bringing electric semi trucks and buses to market, developing self-driving capability and starting an autonomous vehicle service. Musk also panned Tesla’s third plan, issued in 2023, as “too complex for almost anyone to understand.”

While Tesla delivered on Musk’s vow to be more concise — the latest plan is less than 1,000 words — it also lacks specifics. Musk has been similarly vague about progress toward turning Optimus into a business, saying in January that his “very rough guess” was that Tesla may be ready to start delivering its robots to other companies in the second half of 2026.

Musk has nevertheless talked up the potential of Optimus as the company’s car business has lost momentum. Tesla’s worldwide vehicle deliveries fell 13% in the first half of the year, putting the EV maker on course for its second consecutive annual decline.

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