After a year in which everything went wrong, Utah’s 2025 season opener could not have gone any better.
The opposite of Murphy’s Law played out in the Rose Bowl on Saturday night — it’s called Yhpurm’s Law, or Murphy spelled backwards — as the Utes obliterated UCLA 43-10 and served notice that they will be a problem in the Big 12.
A problem for everyone else.
The offensive line controlled the line of scrimmage.
Quarterback Devon Dampier made plays with his legs and arm and looked to be in perfect harmony with playcaller Jason Beck.
The two-way players were impactful on both sides of the ball.
The defense generated steady pressure while only rushing four.
The Utes committed just three penalties and zero turnovers.
Nobody sliced a hand on the water cooler.
It was exactly the performance you’d expect from a team determined to win the Big 12, reach the College Football Playoff and send its 65-year-old head coach into blissful retirement.
And now that it’s over, we can look ahead.
Can anyone or anything prevent the Utes from reaching the Big 12 championship?
Before we game out the games, let’s make two assumptions:
— The Utes experience reasonably good health, especially with the players they cannot afford to lose. Injuries tend to revert to the mean from one season to the next, and the Law of Total Probability — a cousin of Murphy, we presume — suggests the Utes will have an above-average run of good health this fall.
— Eight conference wins will secure a berth in the Big 12 championship, and seven will be enough to qualify for the tiebreaker. After all, the 2024 season produced four teams atop the standings with 7-2 records. (Arizona State and Iowa State advanced to the title game.) Utah’s fate could hinge not only on how many games it loses but which games it loses.
OK, here we go:
Sept. 20: vs. Texas Tech. The Utes’ first conference game might be the toughest. Certainly, Texas Tech has the most expensive roster in the conference, courtesy of the $30 million, NIL-fueled payroll. Also, the Red Raiders have a veteran quarterback, Behren Morton, who has won challenging road games (at Iowa State last season, for example). But the timing actually works in Utah’s favor: Texas Tech’s new pieces, combined with a ridiculously soft non-conference schedule (Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Kent State and Oregon State), will result in a few too many mistakes. In Rice-Eccles, the home team will be sharper, more efficient and clearly superior. Utah 34, Texas Tech 23.
Sept. 27: at West Virginia. A sneaky-tough game. Little is expected of the Mountaineers in their first season under Rich Rodriguez — they had a five-man quarterback competition — but it’s a long trip to a rowdy environment, and Rodriguez can scheme with the best of them. The logistics aren’t all bad for Utah, however. The matchup comes two weeks after West Virginia’s rivalry game (against Pittsburgh) and one week after what should be a taxing trip to Kansas. Close early; not close late. Utah 41, West Virginia 21
Oct. 11: vs. Arizona State. One reason for our favorable view of Utah’s season: the schedule. The Utes don’t play Iowa State, and their toughest games are either at home (Texas Tech and ASU) or a bus ride away (BYU). In this case, both the Utes and the Sun Devils have two weeks to prepare — smart scheduling by the Big 12. How will Utah’s pass rush fare against one of the top offensive lines in the conference and one of the most resourceful quarterbacks in the country (Sam Leavitt)? Not well enough. ASU 27, Utah 23
Oct. 18: at Brigham Young. The dynamics changed the moment Jake Retzlaff left BYU for the transfer portal (and ultimately the starting job at Tulane). While freshman Bear Bachmeier has the tools to become an effective quarterback in the Big 12, the intensity of this rivalry — and Utah’s defense — will be a tad too much. Meanwhile, Dampier’s mobility offers the Utes the vital extra dimension needed to counteract BYU’s defense. And we expect the Cougars, as with the Utes, to enter the game with an emotional limp, courtesy of a trap-game loss in Tucson the previous week. Utah 33, BYU 20
Oct. 25: vs. Colorado. Don’t discount the possibility of a letdown following the Holy War. But are the new-look Buffaloes, who lost their home opener to Georgia Tech, good enough to take advantage? They should be fresh, thanks to a bye the previous week. But Utah defensive coordinator Morgan Scalley will remind his unit about the humiliation last year in Boulder — the Utes allowed 49 points — and that should be enough to conjure a first-rate performance. Utah 26, Colorado 13
Nov. 1: vs. Cincinnati. Having endured the arduous start (Texas Tech and ASU), plus the Holy War and the Holy War hangover, the Utes enter November with their health intact, their minds clear and their goals attainable. The Bearcats? Not so much. Utah 51, Cincinnati 17.
Related Articles
The Hotline’s Power Four power rankings: SEC on top, followed by the ACC
College Football Playoff forecast: How Miami’s win over Notre Dame benefits the ACC and Big 12
Big 12 power rankings: Utah, Iowa State and Texas Tech on top as TCU provides a needed boost
Pac-12 bowl projections: Utah and Oregon to the College Football Playoff and a postseason berth for Arizona
Big Ten power rankings: Ohio State’s on top (of course), followed by Penn State and Oregon
Nov. 15: at Baylor. Based on what we know right now, this stands as Utah’s most difficult road game. The Bears were beaten soundly by Auburn in their opener but have the pieces to contend in the Big 12. And like Utah, they will have two weeks to prepare for what could be a clash of ranked teams. The difference in Waco: Utah’s offensive line will be too much for Baylor’s suspect defensive front, which was exposed by Auburn (307 yards rushing) and won’t be able to stop Wayshawn Parker. Utah 38, Baylor 27
Nov. 22: vs. Kansas State. One of the toughest games to project because of Kansas State’s potential to contend or collapse. When right, the Wildcats can beat anyone, but they have not looked right so far. Quite the opposite, in fact. We suspect they will have been eliminated from the Big 12 race by this point and therefore muster little resistance to the Utah steamroller. Also, this will be KSU’s second consecutive road game after a trip to Oklahoma State, and that’s never easy. Utah 42, Kansas State 24
Nov. 28: at Kansas. A victory in Lawrence would seal an 8-1 conference record and a berth in the championship game. A loss on Black Friday would drop the Utes into the tiebreaker chaos and put them at risk of getting squeezed out. But again, the schedule lends an assist: The Jayhawks will be coming off a trip to Iowa State, with the resulting defeat knocking them from contention. With more at stake, Utah makes all the plays in the fourth quarter and emerges as the only one-loss team in the conference. Utah 34, Kansas 30
With an 11-1 overall record, the Utes close November as the No. 1 seed in the Big 12 championship and well-positioned for an at-large bid to the College Football Playoff if they lose in Arlington.
No matter what happens from there, Whittingham has secured the season needed to hop on his motorcycle and ride into retirement, wind in his hair and legacy intact.
*** Send suggestions, comments and tips (confidentiality guaranteed) to [email protected] or call 408-920-5716
*** Follow me on the social media platform X: @WilnerHotline
