SAN FRANCISCO – With training camp less than one month away, Jonathan Kuminga and the Warriors have yet to find any resolution to their meandering free agency saga.
Kuminga has been linked to a number of contract offers from the Warriors, including a two-year, $45 million deal with a team option in the second year that was reported by ESPN, and trade inquiries with various teams.
But the restricted free agent remains in limbo as no official deal has been completed.
The former [No. 7 overall pick has until Oct. 1 to pick up his $7.9 million qualifying offer. Fellow RFA Cam Thomas reportedly accepted his $6 million qualifying offer on Thursday.
If Kuminga, 22, returns on either a new multi-year deal or on the qualifying offer, he will come back to a team seeking its fifth title of the Steph Curry era.
What’s the best, worst, and middle-of-the-road outcome for Kuminga if he plays the 2025-26 season with the team that drafted him?
Best-case scenario
Coach Steve Kerr has expressed a desire for Kuminga to enjoy a more featured role in his fifth season in the NBA, something the wing had last season before his devastating ankle injury cost him 31 games.
“If JK comes back, we will for sure spend the early part of the season playing him with Jimmy (Butler), Draymond (Green), Steph,” Kerr said during his exit interview. “To me, that would be a no-brainer.”
In an ideal world, Kuminga would be encouraged to bring around-the-rim athleticism that the team lacks as one of Golden State’s top scoring options. Despite playing just 24.3 minutes per game, he was third on the Warriors in drives per game (8.1) and paced the franchise in shots attempted on those drives (4.1), ahead of Curry and Butler.
He also was third on the team in free-throw rate at .414, which meant Kuminga shot around one free throw for every two field goals he attempted. He thrived against Minnesota in the playoffs after Curry’s injury as the focal point of the offense and averaged 20.8 points per game, a role he would need to play whenever Curry, Butler or both are resting during the regular season.
And with a full training camp and preseason, the hope would be that he is able to play well with Butler on the floor. Kuminga, with consistent playing time, could also develop as a passer and rebounder, two areas where he has shown little growth since his rookie season.
In the true best-case scenario, Kuminga would sign a long-term contract with the Warriors in the offseason and be locked in as their post-Curry franchise player, or gets a lucrative deal with another team.
Worst-case scenario
On the opposite side of the coin, the worst outcome would be Kuminga being stuck in the same situation he was late last season when everyone else was healthy: a talented scorer who operates in the same parts of the floor that Butler does.
His inability to thrive within the Warriors’ motion offense often saw him looking lost as Curry and Butler ran sets with Green.
Even if Kuminga remains healthy this season and Kerr fulfills his offseason promise, would Kerr remain patient with a fifth-year player who does not fit with a win-now roster? Could he see a decrease in minutes if mistakes continue to pile up?
Kuminga could also just stagnate as a rebounder, passer and team defender, all traits teams are looking for in athletic wings. He has never averaged five rebounds or three assists per game, and averages half a block a game, something that seems impossible for a player with Kuminga’s athletic gifts.
He would still provide some defensive versatility – at least man-to-man. Depending on matchups, Kuminga would likely take time from Moses Moody, who was picked in his same draft class.
If Kuminga does not progress, it could mean he has difficulty earning the big contract he desires, from either the Warriors or another team.
Middle of the road
Perhaps the most realistic scenario is a mixture of the two extremes. He increases his 3-point shooting (30.5%) and incrementally improves as a rebounder and defender.
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While his passing chops will likely never be anything more than average, and his scoring is dependent on athleticism and the ability to make an occasional midrange jumper, he is still the most talented athlete on the roster.
Even if the results are not pretty all of the time, he would still be a player capable of putting up points on a team that can get bogged down for multiple possessions at a time.
And if veteran sharpshooters Al Horford and De’Anthony Melton sign with the team as is widely expected, Kuminga and the rest of the Warriors should benefit from increased spacing.
If Kuminga accepts the qualifying offer and remains healthy, he should have a number of suitors in unrestricted free agency at the end of the season.
