For now, the rumors about a potential Sen. Alex Padilla for California governor run are just that, rumors.

Related Articles

Opinion: California’s redistricting plan faces three major headwinds

Poll finds enthusiasm for Katie Porter in governor race and Newsom for president

Elias: Bonta may soon become front-runner for California governor

Republican candidate for governor Steve Hilton visits San Jose homeless camp, bashes Democrats

Editorial: California can’t afford to allow Texas to rig 2026

But they’ve certainly got Democratic operatives and consultants talking — even as Padilla and his camp remain loudly mum on the possibility.

The focus for California’s senior senator, said Padilla spokesperson Edgar Rodriguez when asked about the gubernatorial rumors on Wednesday, remains on California’s upcoming special election on redistricting. That’s been the party line in the past few weeks, since the rumor mill really started churning, and what Padilla himself has said in recent interviews.

That’s not a confirmation of a 2026 candidacy — but it’s certainly not a firm no either.

That’s part because a strong, clear frontrunner has yet to emerge in the governor’s race, particularly since former Vice President Kamala Harris said she would not run for governor.

And that’s also part because of Padilla’s political resume and temperament, experts said.

“Padilla would be a formidable candidate. … I’m sure folks are worried about the current state of the race, potentially having a governor who is harder to work with,” said Ajay Mohan, a Democratic political consultant in California. “Padilla would have a field-clearing effect, second to none.”

Padilla “brings a level of visibility and recognition that would make him the candidate to beat,” said Dan Schnur, who teaches political messaging at USC and UC Berkeley.

U.S. Sen. Alex Padilla of California speaks at Pasadena City College on the 6 month anniversary of the Eaton and Palisades fires on Monday, July 7, 2025. (Photo by David Crane, Los Angeles Daily News/SCNG) 

Political parallels for Padilla

Padilla, 52, was appointed to the U.S. Senate by Gov. Gavin Newsom in 2020 when the seat was vacated by Harris to become the country’s vice president. He ran for, and won, a full six-year term in 2022, becoming California’s first Latino to hold a full-term seat in the U.S. Senate.

Raised in Pacoima, the son of Mexican immigrants, Padilla’s entry into politics in the early 1990s was fueled by the politics of the late 1980s and early 1990s San Fernando Valley and L.A., amid the city’s growing Latino base.

Those politics were defined much in part by another intense era of anti-immigrant sentiment. Proposition 187, a 1994 California ballot initiative approved by voters, aimed to deny undocumented immigrants access to public services, including education, health care and social services. It also required reporting of suspected undocumented immigrants to authorities.

The courts ultimately struck it down, but the fervor propelled Padilla and many in his generation into public service. He would join protests against Prop. 187 in the early ’90s, ultimately finding a path into politics and government, managing political campaigns for several legislative candidates and serving as a field representative for then-Sen. Dianne Feinstein.

Tom Hogen-Esch, a professor of political science at Cal State Northridge, sees political parallels in the current moment, a time when the Trump administration’s mass immigration dragnet has swept the nation, hitting California — indeed, Padilla’s own hometown of Pacoima — hard.

Cut to the image of Padilla on June 12, at the Department of Homeland Security press office, amid the initial ramp-up of the immigration crackdown in Los Angeles.

There, Padilla was forcibly removed from a press conference held by U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem and other Trump administration officials when he tried to ask questions. Video showed Padilla kneeling on the ground after being removed from the room, before officers pushed him to the ground and handcuffed him with his arms behind his back.

Hogen-Esch said it was unclear whether that could be a “motivating factor” for many voters next year.

But “to see a U.S. senator body-slammed, kind of embodies some of the political dynamics,” he said.

“I’m not sure others in the race so far can make that kind of argument,” Hogen-Esch said, referencing Padilla’s journey from a working-class San Fernando Valley town to high-profile Trump critic in the U.S. Senate to that day when he was handcuffed on national TV.

Padilla vs. the rest of the crowded field

With Democratic candidates relatively indistinguishable on policy, “it’s a matter of who’s the best messenger. But I think Padilla can speak to the moment in a way that some of the other contenders won’t be able to,” said Hogen-Esch, an expert on L.A. and California politics.

U.S. Sen. Alex Padilla of California is pushed out of the room as Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem holds a news conference in Los Angeles on Thursday, June 12, 2025. (Photo by David Crane, Los Angeles Daily News/SCNG) 

“I think what the voters are going to look at is not only the experience and the capacity to lead, but also the ‘warriorness’ that is needed,” Richard Polanco, a former state Senate majority leader, who has led efforts to increase the statewide number of Democratic legislators.

Name recognition and a long list of party connections could make Padilla an instant frontrunner in the race, generate big campaign dollars and perhaps cause some lesser-known potential candidates to back down from running, pundits said.

“He becomes a tier 1 candidate immediately,” said Michael Trujillo, a Democratic strategist.

Trujillo speculated a Padilla entrance in the race would impact former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra the most, among declared candidates. He noted the two boast similar portfolios — both have worked in Washington, both have served in the state legislature and both would benefit from D.C.-based relationships and donors.

“Becerra isn’t in office anywhere,” Trujillo noted. “If you’re a lobbyist in D.C., if Padilla runs, he’s still going to be a U.S. senator and still going to be critical on bills in the Senate or in committee right now. A better insurance policy is to bet on Padilla rather than Becerra, because if he does come up short, he’s going to remember everyone who supported him for governor.”

“If you’re in D.C., you want to make sure he has a happy memory of you.”

The current field of candidates, said Schnur, the political analyst who has worked on multiple California gubernatorial campaigns, is not lacking messages. “It just lacks the recognizable messengers,” he said.

Padilla is particularly interesting because while he is temperamentally more moderate, he tracks more progressive on issues, said Schnur, and that could leave a pathway for a more centrist candidate, such as former L.A. Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, to compete with him.

But on the progressive front, a Padilla candidacy would hurt Becerra and former Rep. Katie Porter the most, Schnur speculated.

And then there’s also another potential candidate: Billionaire developer Rick Caruso, the recent, unsuccessful candidate for L.A. mayor, said Wednesday he is “seriously looking” into running for California governor.

Trujillo believes a Padilla candidacy would disrupt Caruso’s chances the most. Without Harris in the race, Caruso had more of a lane, he said, but Padilla narrows that substantially.

“This absolutely disrupts Rick Caruso’s decision-making process once again,” he said.

Still, Polanco, who supports Villaraigosa in the governor’s race, also pointed to parallels between the moment and the early 1990s era of intense anti-immigrant fervor in California.

He said the political price that Republicans paid for those years has resulted in a state where Democrats dominate, and where a Latino has a shot at the governor’s seat.

The current moment, like back when former Republican Gov. Pete Wilson was campaigning for Prop. 187, will propel an increase in new voters, coming of age in 2026.

That could catalyze a Latino into office.

People “will be able to look and say yes, the time is now, irrespective of ethnicity,” said Polanco.