The Big Ten power rankings will be published weekly throughout the regular season using a mix of data-driven insight and unapologetic subjectivity. With 18 teams, nine conference games and wild variations in the quality of non-conference schedules, comparative analysis is an inherently flawed approach. Which is fine, because the Hotline hasn’t been wrong about anything in at least 90 minutes.
The Big Ten has suffered two high-profile losses this season (hello, Michigan and Iowa), but let’s not ignore the low-profile defeats, courtesy of Northwestern’s implosion at Tulane and UCLA’s dismal loss at UNLV.
The extent to which those results will drag down the conference is not entirely clear. Unlike college basketball, which has the NET rankings, football lacks a unifying metric that quantifies the results of each game.
That said, the Wildcats and Bruins are infected with resume stains and, therefore, should be considered highly contagious. Losses to either team by Big Ten playoff contenders will be problematic during the selection process.
Granted, it’s difficult to envision any CFP-caliber team losing to Northwestern or UCLA. But it’s a long season. Teams improve. Team regress. Saturdays have their own special brew. You never know.
Assuming a loss to the Wildcats or Bruins is more likely to come on the road than at home, here are the teams at risk:
— at Northwestern: Oregon, UCLA, Purdue, Michigan and Minnesota
— at UCLA: Penn State, Maryland, Nebraska and Washington
Of the nine, only Oregon and Penn State are clear playoff contenders, with Michigan, Nebraska and Washington needing to prove they’re worthy of that categorization.
The risk level for the Big Ten seems low, but there’s a second layer to consider: rivalry games.
Home field matters far less against cross-town or in-state rivals than in all other games, and two Big Ten playoff hopefuls, USC and Illinois, are rivals of the infected duo.
We aren’t calling for upsets. Not now. Not here. But stick this issue in the memory bank for late November, in case the Trojans and Illini are in CFP contention.
To the power rankings …
(Last week’s edition can be found here.)
All times Pacific
1. Ohio State (2-0)
Result: beat Grambling 70-0
Next up: vs. Ohio (4 p.m. on Peacock)
Comment: With the Bobcats this week and a bye next week, the Buckeyes should be undefeated and ranked No. 1 when they make the long trip to Husky Stadium for one of their toughest tests of the season. Our assumption: The Sept. 27 showdown will start at 12:30 p.m. No way CBS passes on the rare chance to show the sport’s No. 1 ratings driver. (Previous: 1)
2. Oregon (2-0)
Result: beat Oklahoma State 69-3
Next up: at Northwestern (9 a.m. on Fox)
Comment: We are eagerly awaiting quarterback Dante Moore’s first matchup with a Power Four opponent. Fortunately, the Ducks play Penn State in a few weeks. (Previous: 3)
3. Penn State (2-0)
Result: beat Florida International 34-0
Next up: vs. Villanova (12:30 p.m. on FS1)
Comment: Presuming they make the College Football Playoff, the Nittany Lions should be docked one seed line as punishment for their putrid non-conference schedule. Seriously, it’s an embarrassment. (Previous: 2)
4. Illinois (2-0)
Result: won at Duke 45-19
Next up: vs. Western Michigan (4 p.m. on FS1)
Comment: Duke could prove to be a bad team, and the ACC looks to be absolutely, indisputably mediocre. But for now, we’ll give the Illini full credit for the victory. (Previous: 4)
5. USC (2-0)
Result: beat Georgia Southern 59-20
Next up: at Purdue (12:30 p.m. on CBS)
Comment: We aren’t picking an upset — the Trojans are favored by 21 in West Lafayette — but don’t be surprised if the game is much closer than anticipated. The Barry Odom magic is working for Purdue. (Previous: 6)
6. Nebraska (2-0)
Result: beat Akron 68-0
Next up: vs. Houston Christian (9 a.m. on FS1)
Comment: The No. 1 rule with Matt Rhule teams: Year 3 is stellar. (Previous: 7)
7. Iowa (1-1)
Result: lost at Iowa State 16-13
Next up: vs. Massachusetts (4:30 p.m. on Big Ten Network)
Comment: We could have sworn Iowa fired Brian Ferentz two years ago. Oh, well. It must have been bad information. (Previous: 5)
8. Washington (2-0)
Result: beat UC Davis 70-10
Next up: idle
Comment: Big wins over bad teams don’t guarantee good seasons, but good teams beat bad teams badly — all of which means this: Nothing we’ve seen so far suggests the road to Big Ten contention is blocked. That said, warning signs could start flashing in Pullman in two weeks. (Previous: 9)
9. Michigan (1-1)
Result: lost at Oklahoma 24-13
Next up: vs. Central Michigan (9 a.m. on Big Ten Network)
Comment: Sure looks like the defense has regressed more than the offense has improved, making a return to the top tier of the conference unlikely. (Previous: 8)
10. Michigan State (2-0)
Result: beat Boston College 42-40 (2OT)
Next up: vs. Youngstown State (12:30 p.m. on Big Ten Network)
Comment: Don’t discount the possibility that Michigan State will have the best quarterback in the conference by the end of the season. We wouldn’t bet on Aidan Chiles becoming elite, but we wouldn’t bet against him, either. (Previous: 10)
11. Minnesota (2-0)
Result: beat Northwestern State 66-0
Next up: at Cal (7:30 p.m. on ESPN)
Comment: Another Big Ten hypothetical to consider: The Gophers are 6-1 headed into Iowa City on the final Saturday of October. (Previous: 11)
12. Maryland (2-0)
Result: beat Northern Illinois 20-9
Next up: vs. Towson (9 a.m. on Peacock)
Comment: We checked the latest odds for Big Ten Freshman of the Year candidates, and Terps quarterback Malik Washington, who has five touchdown passes and no interceptions, is -bajillion. (Previous: 12)
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13. Rutgers (2-0)
Result: beat Miami (Ohio) 45-17
Next up: vs. Norfolk State (12:30 p.m. on Big Ten Network)
Comment: The Scarlet Knights opened with a victory over Ohio. Then they handled Miami (Ohio). And later this season, they face another team with Ohio in the name that might offer a tad more resistance. (Previous: 14)
14. Indiana (2-0)
Result: beat Kennesaw State 56-9
Next up: vs. Indiana State (Friday at 3:30 p.m. on Big Ten Network)
Comment: Remember last week, when the Hotline committed to not mocking Indiana’s schedule each week starting this week. Well, make that next week. (Previous: 13)
15. Wisconsin (2-0)
Result: beat Middle Tennessee State 42-10
Next up: at Alabama (9 a.m. on ABC)
Comment: In a previous life, Badgers coach Luke Fickell faced Alabama — in the 2021 College Football Playoff, as Cincinnati’s head coach. (The Bearcats lost 27-6 in the Cotton Bowl.) Of course, that was also a previous life for the Alabama football program. (Previous: 15)
16. Purdue (2-0)
Result: beat Southern Illinois 34-17
Next up: vs. USC (12:30 p.m. on CBS)
Comment: The Boilermakers are not the worst team in the Big Ten and, from what we have seen, they aren’t close to the worst team. Which says something about Purdue … and about the Big Ten. (Previous: 16)
17. UCLA (0-2)
Result: lost at UNLV 30-23
Next up: vs. New Mexico (Friday at 7 p.m. on Big Ten Network)
Comment: Good thing the Bruins have the cash to make whatever coaching and support staff changes are needed this winter to help DeShaun Foster’s tenure gain traction. (Previous: 17)
18. Northwestern (1-1)
Result: beat Western Illinois 42-7
Next up: vs. Oregon (9 a.m. on Fox)
Comment: We have not researched the worst home loss in Northwestern history but plan to check the record book before kickoff. (Previous: 18)
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