The Pac-12 dissolved 13 months ago, but one vestige of the former conference remains relevant to the college football season unfolding this fall: the bowl lineup. The legacy teams are tied to the same postseason arrangement that existed prior to collapse, albeit with one critical change. Instead of using conference record to establish the pecking order, overall record is the determinant.
Each week, the Hotline will project and assess the postseason status for all 12 teams. Last week’s rankings can be found here.
With three games down, two paths are available to Arizona State in its role as the defending Big 12 champion.
The Sun Devils could produce another stellar season in which they contend for the conference title and a playoff berth and win nine or 10 games — the trajectory that many in and around Tempe expect.
Or they could regress ever-so-slightly with no single explanation for the backslide. Perhaps it’s a combination of injuries, bad bounces and the sequencing of opponents on the schedule, catching a team at just the wrong time in the wrong place.
For all but a handful of teams across the country, seasons play out on the margins. ASU had more of the margin calls break right than wrong last year. That could flip this fall through no fault of the players and coaches.
In the world where regression is reality for the Sun Devils, the season hinges on the middle portion — the portion that begins this week at Baylor and includes most of the best teams in the Big 12.
After Baylor comes TCU.
After TCU comes No. 16 Utah.
After Utah comes No. 17 Texas Tech.
After Texas Tech comes Houston.
After Houston comes No. 12 Iowa State.
Based on results to date, the Sun Devils will be narrow favorites or slight underdogs in all six. Which means the likelihood of winning four is essentially the same as the likelihood of losing four. Which means a team that could finish 9-3 also could finish 5-7 if just enough little things go wrong.
Within the world where Arizona State regresses slightly is a land where the bowl math becomes tricky. Where the last-minute loss at Mississippi State becomes a nagging number on the ledger and the postseason outlook dims to an unexpected degree.
The Sun Devils didn’t draw the most difficult lineup of Big 12 opponents possible, but it’s close. All six look capable of contending. All six look equipped to match ASU yard for yard and point for point into the fourth quarter, where a few plays make all the difference.
Maybe the Sun Devils are as good as last year, if not better, and cruise into November with a series of lopsided victories and their sights on the CFP.
But the alternate scenario, which revealed itself in Starkville two Saturdays ago, remains possible.
And if that becomes ASU’s reality, the next six games will frame the endgame for the defending champs.
To the bowl projections …
College Football Playoff
Team: Oregon (Big Ten at-large)
Comment: If the Ducks (3-0) win in Happy Valley next week, they will move to the automatic qualifier side of the ledger — until then, we see Penn State as the Big Ten favorite. But as long as Dan Lanning and Co. finish with fewer than three losses, they should be a no-brainer selection for the committee.
Alamo Bowl
Team: USC
Comment: The Hotline continues to view USC (3-0) as not quite good enough to reach the CFP but plenty good enough to be within reach for the Alamo Bowl, which will jump at the chance to select a first-time participant with a brand name and a head coach from Lubbock.
Las Vegas Bowl
Team: Utah
Comment: For the first time this season, the Hotline isn’t projecting the Utes (3-0) to reach the CFP. Their offense was clunky enough at Wyoming to be cause for concern entering a difficult stretch, with showdowns against Texas Tech, Arizona State and Brigham Young all in the next month.
Holiday Bowl
Team: Washington
Comment: Had you gamed out a scenario in the winter/spring of 2024, when Jedd Fisch took over a decimated roster, that Year 2 would end in the Holiday Bowl, most UW fans would have been quite happy. But 18 months later, it seems the Holiday would be viewed by some as a consolation prize for the Huskies (2-0).
Sun Bowl
Team: Cal
Comment: The Bears (3-0) are tracking for the most prestigious bowl invitation they have received since the Jeff Tedford era. Win the games they’re supposed to win, and that should become a reality.
LA Bowl
Team: Arizona State
Comment: This placement will naturally be interpreted as a swipe at the Sun Devils (2-1) when, in fact, an eight- or nine-win team could land in the LA Bowl if the legacy schools only produce one CFP participant and a logjam results.
ESPN bowl
Team: Arizona
Comment: This would be the First Responders, Gasparilla or Armed Forces Bowls, and the Wildcats (3-0) took a great leap forward with their win over Kansas State last week. The upcoming schedule is manageable enough for three more victories. And if two legacy schools make the CFP, there would be room for everyone else to move up.
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Non-qualifier
Team: Colorado
Comment: The double-digit loss at Houston was ugly, and we expect the situation in Boulder to get worse before it gets better … if it gets better. For the first time in Deion Sanders’ tenure, the long-haul forecast isn’t bright.
Non-qualifier
Team: Oregon State
Comment: Worth repeating: The Trent Bray era in Corvallis is strikingly similar to the DeShaun Foster era in Westwood, with former players being elevated to the top job long before they were ready. The Bruins terminated Foster on Sunday. The Beavers (0-3) probably will have more patience with Bray. But how much more?
Non-qualifier
Team: Stanford
Comment: For the purposes of this exercise, we purchased a pair of Cardinal-colored glasses from www.youneverknow.com and examined the upcoming schedule. Even then, it was impossible to spot more than five wins.
Non-qualifier
Team: UCLA
Comment: If you’re wondering about UCLA’s prospects for a bowl bid next season under the new head coach, here’s a nugget: The non-conference opponents are San Diego State and Nevada at home and Cal on the road. The Bruins were supposed to play Georgia, but the series was cancelled.
Non-qualifier
Team: Washington State
Comment: We don’t hide from bold forecasts; we embrace them. But picking a team that lost by 49 points to North Texas to reach the postseason requires a leap of faith even the Hotline cannot make.
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