Kurtenbach: Can Mac Jones keep it up? Three predictions for 49ers-Cardinals

Six days a week, it seems as if nothing can go right for the San Francisco 49ers.

But on Sundays so far this season, the job has been done.

The opportunity for the 49ers this week is immense. To be 3-0 is a boon for a team’s playoff chances — it’s hay in the barn. Since the playoffs expanded in 2020, 17 of 20 teams that started 3-0 have made the postseason.

A win over the Cardinals will also mean that the Niners are 2-0 in the division. The NFC West seems a bit more realistic if that’s the case.

So yeah, it’s a big one.

And with that, I have three predictions (you can call them big if you want) for the contest:

1. Mac Jones plays, and it doesn’t look like it did in New Orleans

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The first part is hardly a bold prediction. The Niners have effectively said that Jones will receive a second-straight start, and no one can argue that it’s not deserved after his strong performance in a win against the Saints last week. But let’s not pretend he didn’t get away with a few. He did enough to win, but he sprayed the ball around on throws (just ask Marques Valdez-Scantling) and frequently held onto the ball too long in the pocket (an area he is loath to leave). He was on the right side of those tight margins last Sunday—the Saints were schematically sound but lacked the playmakers to take full advantage.

The Cardinals, however, do not. The additions Arizona made to their front seven to pair with their dynamic (though now injured) back five have given their defense a new dimension. In particular, the addition of Josh Sweat as a pass-rushing linebacker in a 3-4 front that is often a five-man wall on the line of scrimmage has been game-changing. It doesn’t matter how many cool things Jonathan Gannon’s team can do in the defensive backfield if no one is in the offensive backfield to speed the quarterback up. I think the Cardinals have that now, and it manifests into turnovers from Jones in the Niners’ home opener.

2. The 49ers’ three-safety look is better than the Cardinals’ three-safety look

The Cardinals’ defense is famous (amongst dorks like me) for playing three safeties at the same time. It’s a very collegiate look that allows safety Budda Baker—the most underrated player in football—to go do crazy things all over the field. And with the Cardinals’ injuries at cornerback (standout rookie Will Johnson is doubtful, Max Melton is questionable), you’d have to imagine the Cardinals will use that three-safety look early and often on Sunday.

But the Niners have a new three-safety look, too. They call it “Big Nickel,” and while it does, in effect, play safety Ji’Ayir Brown at strong-side linebacker, it’s three safeties on the field nevertheless. Work with me, here.

And after trying it out in New Orleans to serious success, I’d expect the Niners to use it heavily on Sunday in Santa Clara. No team in the NFC uses heavier sets (two, three tight ends) than the Cardinals, and those are the kind of sets that the Niners used Brown against the Saints. Was it a trial balloon?

And while, yes, playing Brown as a linebacker is likely too light against the Cardinals’ power run game, it’s a boon against Trey McBride, Arizona’s elite pass-catching tight end, who is used like a slot receiver. You can’t actually stop McBride, but the Niners’ three-safety look can slow him down, and that is necessary if the Niners want to win this game.

3. We’ll call this the Mykel Williams game, for reasons good or bad

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Since Nick Bosa entered the league in 2019, he’s been searching for a defensive end pairing that can consistently set the edge. It’s only been two NFL games, but I think he’s found it in rookie Mykel Williams. It’s manifested in a pretty straightforward way: When Williams is on the field, Niners opponents cannot run the ball (25 percent success rate). When he is off the field, teams run wild on the Niners (66 percent success rate).

In no game is setting that edge and maintaining “contain” more critical than in this one, where you have to match not only the battering ram James Conner, but also the excellent one-cut-and-go ability of sophomore running back Trey Benson and the tuck-and-scamper ability of Kyler Murray.

Either this will be the validation of Williams’ run-stopping ability, or a “brake-pump” game. Either way, we’ll be talking about No. 98 at the end of the contest.

Bonus Prediction: The white jerseys give us the “ick.” The Niners in white, at home? I don’t like it. It’s, frankly, kind of soft. But the Cardinals in red at Levi’s Stadium? No thank you. Let’s call this a debt collection from when the Niners used State Farm Stadium in Arizona as a home base in 2020. It’s the only way not to hate this.

Game prediction: Cardinals 23, 49ers 22. The Niners’ defense performs again, allowing only two touchdowns, but the San Francisco pass game sputters with only one viable receiver (Ricky Pearsall), and special teams miscues carry the day.