Welcome the Hotline’s weekly picks against the point spread, published Thursdays throughout the regular season with a focus on the top games nationally and the most intriguing matchups across the West. Last week, we were 5-5. Lines are courtesy of vegasinsider.com. Picks are for entertainment purposes only … unless they aren’t.
The third Saturday in October is typically a tad early for tipping-point games, but that’s exactly the situation, for better or worse, for Arizona and Arizona State.
Both teams are fresh off defeats that were stark contrasts in margin but comparable in the predicaments they created.
Arizona’s come-from-ahead loss to BYU in overtime, combined with developments across the Big 12, seemingly have thrust the visit to Houston into must-win territory — or whatever is a half step from that terrain.
What of Arizona State? Playing without quarterback Sam Leavitt (and their entire defense, apparently), the Sun Devils were blasted off the line of scrimmage and out of Rice-Eccles Stadium. The lopsided loss to Utah left coach Kenny Dillingham and Co. with no margin for error entering the back half of their midseason double-whammy.
Next comes Texas Tech, with its $30 million roster (roughly), undefeated record, No. 7 ranking and designs on dethroning Arizona State as Big 12 champions.
Because the Sun Devils (4-2, 2-1 Big 12) also lost at Mississippi State, a defeat Saturday would knock them from at-large contention for the College Football Playoff — they aren’t getting in with three losses — and eliminate any cushion in their pursuit of the conference title.
They would have to win out and hope the Big 12 tiebreaker (with other teams at 7-2) propels them into the championship game as the No. 2 seed.
Put another way: The Sun Devils would be in a more precarious position in the middle of October than they were at any point last season during their stunning run to the CFP.
But if the Devils rise up and take down the Red Raiders, everything changes. They would be vastly better positioned for a spot in the Big 12 championship, thanks in part to the tiebreaker advantage over Texas Tech.
Arizona’s goals were not as lofty when the season began, then ticked up after the Wildcats rolled to a 3-0 start.
At the midpoint of coach Brent Brennan’s season, it’s clear from the lopsided defeat at Iowa State and the overtime loss to BYU that the Wildcats aren’t ready to contend for the title. But their victories over Kansas State and Oklahoma State are proof of substantial year-over-year improvement.
Exactly where Arizona (4-2, 1-2) falls in the Big 12 hierarchy will become clear Saturday — as will its prospects for a postseason bid.
The Wildcats must win two of their final six games to become bowl-eligible. That task is more difficult than it appears, given the recent performance of several looming opponents.
The visit to Houston is a toss-up game according to the oddsmakers and any rational assessment of the competing personnel.
Then comes a trip to Boulder, where Colorado showed life last week in a victory over Iowa State.
Then comes a home date with Kansas, which is 0-3 against ranked teams but 4-0 otherwise.
From there, the Wildcats make the long trip to No. 24 Cincinnati, which has far exceeded expectations and could be this year’s version of Arizona State.
The home schedule concludes with Baylor, which is three points away from being tied atop the Big 12 standings.
The Wildcats wrap up Brennan’s second season with the Territorial Cup and all the challenges ASU brings.
All in all, Arizona’s final six opponents have a combined record of 25-13.
Four of the games are on the road.
Can the Wildcats win two of the six? Absolutely. But a loss at Houston, which is hardly the most difficult assignment, would suggest zero guarantees ahead for the Wildcats.
The Big 12 has three bottom feeders: UCF, West Virginia and Oklahoma State. The Wildcats have already beaten OSU and don’t play the other two.
From here, nothing is easy.
If the Wildcats lose Saturday, the path into the postseason becomes vastly more treacherous.
To the picks …
Season record: 36-36-1
Five-star special: 3-4
(All times Pacific)
North Carolina (+10) at Cal
Kickoff: Friday at 7:30 p.m. on ESPN
Comment: Generally, we avoid picking Cal as a home favorite, especially as a double-digit home favorite. (Under Justin Wilcox, the Bears have repeatedly played down to the level of their competition.) But the Tar Heels are dreadful, their chemistry is poor and their head coach has checked out. If the Bears don’t cover, there’s a problem. Pick: Cal
Washington (+5.5) at Michigan
Kickoff: 9 a.m. on Fox
Comment: Ohio State’s defense is beyond elite, so UW’s 24-6 loss a few weeks ago should carry limited weight when assessing the Huskies. And after watching Michigan’s lopsided loss at USC, we’re starting to seriously consider the possibility that the Wolverines are no better than mediocre. Feels like an upset. Pick: Washington
Arizona (-1.5) at Houston
Kickoff: 9 a.m. on FS1
Comment: Arizona’s performance in the Red Zone has been substandard, and nothing turns a winnable game into a gut-punch loss like settling for three points instead of securing seven. With the early kickoff, the Wildcats can’t afford a sluggish start. Pick: Houston
UNLV (+11.5) at Boise State
Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on FS1
Comment: The Rebels are undefeated (6-0) but have played one of the softest schedules in captivity and just gave up 48 points to an opponent (Air Force) that has one win. But we have little faith in this edition of Boise State, which has handled Mountain West showdowns impressively in the past. Pick: UNLV
Texas Tech (-9.5) at ASU
Kickoff: 1 p.m. on Fox
Comment: We’re assuming both quarterbacks will play, although ASU’s Sam Leavitt could be healthier — and hence more effective — than Texas Tech’s Behren Morton. How will the Sun Devils hold up at the line of scrimmage? They were just overrun by an opponent (Utah) that the Red Raiders manhandled a few weeks ago. Pick: ASU
Washington State (+17.5) at Virginia
Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. on The CW
Comment: The Cougars mustered a terrific performance last weekend at Mississippi and were within range of a major upset. But this assignment is far more difficult, partly because of the logistics (another distant road game) and partly because Virginia won’t take the Cougars lightly after the scare they gave the Rebels. Pick: Virginia
Oregon (-17) at Rutgers
Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. on Big Ten Network
Comment: A long trip awaits the Ducks after a demoralizing loss (to Indiana), but there’s no better formula for getting back on track than a mediocre opponent with a turnstile defense: Rutgers is No. 135 nationally (out of 136 teams) in yards-per-play allowed. The Ducks should be sitting on 40 when the fourth quarter begins. Pick: Oregon
Maryland (+3.5) at UCLA
Kickoff: 4 p.m. on FS1
Comment: The Terps are coming off back-to-back home losses (to Washington and Nebraska) and now must make the long trip to face a hot opponent. The Bruin Bounce, as the post-DeShaun Foster upturn is known on the Hotline, will end soon. But not this weekend. Pick: UCLA
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Tennessee (+8.5) at Alabama
Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. on ABC
Comment: Kalen DeBoer’s wardrobe selection Saturday evening (i.e., the Black Hoodie of Death) matters far less to us than the game location: The Crimson Tide have been unbeatable in Tuscaloosa under DeBoer. This should be close for three quarters, but Tennessee doesn’t have the defense to withstand the final onslaught. Pick: Alabama
USC (+9.5) at Notre Dame
Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. on NBC
Comment: Notre Dame’s losses have come by three points to No. 2 Miami and by one point to No. 4 Texas A&M — we think the Irish are even better than their No. 13 ranking. Are the Trojans capable of making the cross-country trip in the middle of Big Ten play and holding their ground for 60 minutes in what’s tantamount to a playoff-elimination game? Nope, but they should hold up for 58 minutes. Pick: USC
Utah (-3.5) at BYU
Kickoff: 5 p.m. on Fox
Comment: The prime time slot on Fox is the broadcast window this rivalry deserves and heaps attention on a critical game for Utah coach Kyle Whittingham’s legacy. The winner becomes a frontrunner to reach the Big 12 championship while the loser has a steep climb. With plenty of focus on quarterback Devon Dampier and Utah’s offense against BYU’s granite defense, we suspect the outcome hinges on BYU freshman quarterback Bear Bachmeier’s success — or lack thereof. Pick: Utah
Straight-up winners: Cal, Washington, Houston, UNLV, Texas Tech, Virginia, Oregon, UCLA, Alabama, Notre Dame and Utah
Five-star special: Oregon. Dan Lanning will have the Ducks ready for an impressive bounce-back performance against an opponent that can offer little in the way of resistance.
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