The Big 12 power rankings are published weekly by the Hotline throughout the regular season. They are the result of a deep dive into the analytics, an assessment of subjective factors and, when necessary, flips of the coin. No conference has more parity. The parity leads to chaos, and the chaos creates an endlessly compelling product that is not always easy to unscramble.

(Here are last week’s rankings.)

Two weeks from the first College Football Playoff rankings reveal, the Big 12 is a single play from idyllic positioning. Had Arizona State not allowed a last-second, game-losing touchdown at Mississippi State in early September, the Sun Devils would have one loss and the conference would possess multiple paths to claiming two CFP bids.

The champion is guaranteed a berth in the 12-team event regardless of its schedule strength, loss total or outcomes in other conferences.

But is a second berth reasonable for the Big 12, which only received one last year?

What combination of results would offer the best chance?

Is there an ideal pairing for the championship game?

Eventually, a three-loss team will make the CFP field, but the odds of the Big 12 creating the new paradigm are next to nil. That breakthrough will come courtesy of the SEC or Big Ten.

So the endgame is clear for the Big 12: A championship game matchup of teams with no more than one loss. That way, the loser would be 11-2, at worst, when the CFP selection committee makes its final determination.

At this point, four teams are either 7-0 or 6-1: BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and Texas Tech. The number of instances in which those four play each other down the stretch is smaller than you might expect, which limits the onset of eat-your-own syndrome.

But there’s a complication. None of the four teams noted above recorded non-conference victories worth half a can of beans. It’s bad, folks: The best win of the bunch is probably BYU’s home victory over Stanford.

That matters a great deal because a two-loss loser of the Big 12 championship game would be compared to two-loss teams in the SEC, Big Ten and ACC, with non-conference wins potentially playing an important role in the decision.

With that in mind, the combination of results that gives the Big 12 the best chance to produce an at-large qualifier would be:

— Texas Tech beats BYU next month in Lubbock.

— BYU beats Texas Tech in the conference championship.

That is, by far, the preferred outcome.

Yes, we’re shunning Houston (6-1). But the Cougars beat Stephen F. Austin, Rice and Oregon State (by three points) in non-conference games. As a two-loss Big 12 runner-up, they would lose any resume showdown against SEC or Big Ten teams with equivalent records.

And yes, we’re shunning Cincinnati (6-1). The Bearcats have a loss to Nebraska that is looking worse by the week. They would finish the season with two wins, at most, against ranked teams.

But if Texas Tech wins out and BYU loses only to the Red Raiders, then beats them in the rematch in the title game, the Big 12 would be guaranteed to emerge from championship Saturday with a two-loss runner-up.

That team, Texas Tech, would have three wins over ranked opponents and an advantageous asterisk on its resume: One of the two losses (at Arizona State) came without starting quarterback Behren Morton.

And if Texas Tech happens to beat BYU in Arlington, the Cougars would be a two-loss runner-up whose only losses were to a playoff-bound team, Texas Tech. What’s more, they likely would end the season with three wins over ranked opponents.

We see no other matchup in the championship game that presents more favorable positioning regardless of the outcome.

The conference takes pride in its parity, but parity is the enemy of CFP access. Over the next six weekends, it needs two teams to dominate.

(All times Pacific)

1. BYU (7-0/4-0)

Result: beat Utah 24-21
Next up: at Iowa State (12:30 p.m. on Fox)
Comment: The Cougars rarely look pretty or resemble a playoff-worthy team — except during make-or-break plays. In those instances, they are remarkable. Which explains their 7-2 record in games decided by a touchdown or less since the start of last season. (Previous: 2)

2. Cincinnati (6-1/4-0)

Result: won at Oklahoma State 49-17
Next up: vs. Baylor (1 p.m. on ESPN2)
Comment: Scott Satterfield has gone from the Hot Seat to leading contender for Big 12 Coach of the Year in a half-season. We can cross Cincinnati off the list of potential vacancies this winter. (Previous: 3)

3. Arizona State (5-2/3-1)

Result: beat Texas Tech 26-22
Next up: vs. Houston (5 p.m. on ESPN2)
Comment: Trap game, thy name is Houston. (Previous: 5)

4. Texas Tech (6-1/3-1)

Result: lost at Arizona State 26-22
Next up: vs. Oklahoma State (1 p.m. on ESPNU)
Comment: The loss in Tempe notwithstanding, the Red Raiders should be five- or six-point favorites on a neutral field against anyone in the Big 12, assuming a healthy Behren Morton. (Previous: 1)

5. Utah (5-2/2-2)

Result: lost at BYU 24-21
Next up: vs. Colorado (7:15 p.m. on ESPN)
Comment: Kyle Whittingham’s repeated insistence on attempting fourth downs and not taking easy field goals cost the Utes the game and ignored the clear indications the Holy War would be close and low-scoring. Every three points was like a chunk of gold. (Previous: 4)

6. TCU (5-2/2-2)

Result: beat Baylor 42-36
Next up: at West Virginia (3 p.m. on ESPN+)
Comment: The Horned Frogs better handle their business in Morgantown and grab win No. 6, which would clinch a bowl berth, because the finishing schedule is daunting: vs. Iowa State, at BYU, at Houston, vs. Cincinnati. (Previous: 6)

7. Iowa State (5-2/2-2)

Result: did not play
Next up: vs. BYU (12:30 p.m. on Fox)
Comment: There is no margin for error remaining in Ames. If they lose this week, the Cyclones will be (unofficially) boxed out of the Big 12 championship game before October comes to an end. That would be quite the twist after their fabulous start. (Previous: 7)

8. Houston (6-1/3-1)

Result: beat Arizona 31-28
Next up: at Arizona State (5 p.m. on ESPN2)
Comment: If Willie Fritz produces eight or nine wins in his second season — and the stretch-run schedule makes that a distinct possibility — the market could come calling. The SEC figures to have at least three vacancies, and perhaps as many as five. (Previous: 11)

9. Baylor (4-3/2-2)

Result: lost at TCU 42-36
Next up: at Cincinnati (1 p.m. on ESPN2)
Comment: The seat under Dave Aranda could get very warm very quickly in Waco, courtesy of a November that features zero locks and a slew of sneaky-tough assignments. (Previous: 8)

10. Arizona (4-3/1-3)

Result: lost at Houston 31-28
Next up: idle
Comment: We’re convinced the 2025 Wildcats would beat the 2024 Wildcats by multiple touchdowns. But if they don’t trade boneheaded mistakes for winning plays soon, they might miss the chance to secure a bowl berth that would allow everyone to exhale. (Previous: 9)

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11. Kansas (4-3/2-2)

Result: did not play
Next up: vs. Kansas State (9 a.m. on TNT)
Comment: It feels like the Jayhawks haven’t played in a month thanks to the combination of a nondescript win (over UCF) and a blowout loss (to Texas Tech) and, of course, the bye. (Previous: 10)

12. Kansas State (3-4/2-2)

Result: did not play
Next up: at Kansas (9 a.m. on TNT)
Comment: Another sign of changing times in college football: The Wildcats are underdogs in the Sunflower Showdown (by 3.5 points) for the first time in forever. And the line makes perfect sense. (Previous: 12)

13. Colorado (3-4/1-3)

Result: did not play
Next up: at Utah (7:15 p.m. on ESPN)
Comment: Ideal timing for the Buffaloes, who have two weeks to prepare for an opponent coming off a loss in its rivalry game. Not sure that will make a difference once the Utes shake off their Holy War hangover, which could take two or three quarters, but it’s certainly a factor. (Previous: 13)

14. UCF (4-3/1-3)

Result: beat West Virginia 45-13
Next up: idle
Comment: Scott Frost’s bowl math: Two wins are needed with five games left. We see one lock (vs. Oklahoma State), two significant challenges (at Baylor, vs. Houston) and two baked-in losses (at Texas Tech, at BYU). (Previous: 14)

15. West Virginia (2-5/0-4)

Result: lost at UCF 45-13
Next up: vs. TCU (3 p.m. on ESPN+)
Comment: The postseason is merely a dream at this point, but the Mountaineers have multiple opportunities to play the role of spoiler. (Previous: 15)

16. Oklahoma State (1-6/0-4)

Result: lost to Cincinnati 49-17
Next up: at Texas Tech (1 p.m. on ESPNU)
Comment: The Cowboys open the 2026 season at Tulsa and host Oregon in Week 2, so their losing streak could very well last more than a calendar year. (Previous: 16)

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