The Big 12 power rankings are published weekly by the Hotline throughout the regular season. They are the result of a deep dive into the analytics, an assessment of subjective factors and, when necessary, flips of the coin. No conference has more parity. The parity leads to chaos, and the chaos creates an endlessly compelling product that is not always easy to unscramble.

(Here are last week’s rankings.)

The Big 12 hasn’t hesitated to explore expansion options in the two years since securing its 16-team structure. It held talks with Gonzaga and Connecticut and even heard a pitch from Memphis and its $200 million buy-in offer.

Each time, the conference passed. While financial considerations were central to the decision, the competitive piece played a role, especially on the football side.

The former Group of Five schools that joined the Big 12 in 2023 weren’t exactly thriving on the field. Would UConn and Memphis flounder the way UCF, Houston, BYU and Cincinnati struggled?

Well, about that.

The rise of the G5s is perhaps the most intriguing storyline in the Big 12 this season. BYU and Cincinnati are atop the standings, undefeated in conference play — the Cougars are unbeaten in all games, in fact —  and one game ahead of Houston.

Texas Tech is tied for second. Otherwise, the Big 12’s old guard has been overthrown.

Oklahoma State is one of the worst teams in the country. West Virginia isn’t much better. Kansas, Kansas State and Baylor are .500 overall and multiple games off the pace in the conference race, as is TCU.

The former G5s are faring better than the Pac-12 transplants, as well. Arizona State just lost at home to Houston. Arizona dropped back-to-back games to BYU and Houston. Colorado is an evolving mess. Utah can’t win the games that matter most.

Each cranny has an exception — for example, UCF is lagging the other three schools that joined in the summer of 2023 — but the 40,000-foot view clearly shows a conference turned on its head and trajectories that would not be possible elsewhere.

The absence of blue bloods in the Big 12 creates a path to the top for any school that makes a smart coaching hire, offers the requisite resources and mixes in a dash of fortune.

Also, the ascent from Group of Five power to Power Four winner takes time. The first fall in the Big 12’s was a mess, as the quartet of G5s posted a combined record of 8-28 in conference play.

BYU’s success was the easiest to forecast given the program’s tradition and resources, particularly in the NIL era. After a single substandard year, the Cougars rose to prominence last season and were arguably given a raw deal by the College Football Playoff selection committee.

Cincinnati (7-1) and Houston (7-1) qualify as massive upside surprises this season:

— The Bearcats were 4-14 in their first two years in the conference and entered 2025 with a head coach, Scott Satterfield, seemingly on the Hot Seat.

But the Bearcats took Nebraska to the wire in the season opener and haven’t lost since thanks to a punishing running game and quarterback Brendan Sorsby, a frontrunner for Big 12 Offensive Player of the year.

— The Cougars rolled through a soft non-conference schedule and were beaten soundly by Texas Tech. But the loss proved to be a blip, not a harbinger.

The victory at ASU last weekend cemented coach Willie Fritz and Co. as contenders. Given Houston’s remaining schedule, a one-loss regular season is in relatively easy reach.

It’s hardly a stretch to envision the Cougars and Bearcats colliding for the conference title and a berth in the CFP.

Maybe one of them faces BYU instead.

Any combination of the three advancing to the Big 12 title game would reflect the conference’s mayhem at its best, at least for the foursome from the Group of Five.

The longstanding members, with the apparent exception of Texas Tech, need to catch up.

To the power rankings …

(All times Pacific)

1. Brigham Young (8-0/5-0)

Result: won at Iowa State 41-27
Next up: idle
Comment: A tremendous performance by the Cougars, who were on the road following the Holy War and facing an opponent with two weeks to prepare — and then lost star tailback LJ Martin and fell behind by two touchdowns. But quarterback Bear Bachmeier deftly handled the increased load (and the environment), and BYU produced a turnover margin of +4, which made all the difference. (Previous: 1)

2. Cincinnati (7-1/5-0)

Result: beat Baylor 41-20
Next up: at Utah (7:15 p.m. on ESPN)
Comment: Among power conference teams, only USC, Arkansas and Oregon average more yards-per-play than the Bearcats (7.4). We view that stat as the best measure of offensive efficiency because it accounts for disparities in tempo. (Previous: 2)

3. Texas Tech (7-1/4-1)

Result: beat Oklahoma State 42-0
Next up: at Kansas State (12:30 p.m. on Fox)
Comment: Such an interesting test case playing out in Lubbock, where the Red Raiders spent all that NIL money on the lines of scrimmage and playmakers and opted to stick with their in-house quarterback options. If it misfires, there will be significant second-guessing — with coach Joey McGuire in the line of fire. (Previous: 4)

4. Utah (6-2/3-2)

Result: beat Colorado 53-7
Next up: vs. Cincinnati (7:15 p.m. on ESPN)
Comment: You aren’t going to believe this, but the Utes seemingly have a quarterback quandary after freshman Byrd Ficklin’s dynamic showing. Then again, it was Colorado, not Texas Tech or BYU, so coach Kyle Whittingham would be wise to avoid an overreaction. (Previous: 5)

5. Houston (7-1/4-1)

Result: won at ASU 24-16
Next up: vs. West Virginia (9 a.m. on FS1)
Comment: Willie Fritz spent 30 years coaching at lower levels and won everywhere (junior college, Division II, Group of Five) in much the same way Indiana’s Curt Cignetti and Alabama’s Kalen DeBoer won at multiple levels before getting a shot in the Power Four. (Previous: 8)

6. Arizona State (5-3/3-2)

Result: lost to Houston 24-16
Next up: at Iowa State (9 a.m. on TNT)
Comment: Funny how the games that don’t look difficult when the schedule is released turn out to be absolute treachery. Of course, ASU spent most of 2024 occupying the wrecking ball role Houston has grabbed this season. (Previous: 3)

7. TCU (6-2/3-2)

Result: won at West Virginia 23-17
Next up: idle
Comment: The Horned Frogs were exceedingly wise to lock up a bowl berth in Morgantown, because with Iowa State, BYU, Houston and Cincinnati left, they might not win another game. (Previous: 6)

8. Iowa State (5-3/2-3)

Result: lost to BYU 41-27
Next up: vs. ASU (9 a.m. on TNT)
Comment: The Cyclones’ last victory was exactly a month ago, on Sept. 27, when they rolled Arizona and looked like one of the teams to beat in the Big 12. Since then, they have lost to Cincinnati, Colorado — both were on the road — and BYU. (Previous: 7)

9. Kansas State (4-4/3-2)

Result: won at Kansas 42-17
Next up: vs. Texas Tech (12:30 p.m. on Fox)
Comment: Remember back when the Wildcats lost in Tucson on a Friday night in mid-September, looked completely broken on offense and appeared headed into the abyss? Welp, they have won three of four since then and should be considered extremely dangerous this weekend when the Red Raiders pay a visit. (Previous: 12)

10. Baylor (4-4/2-3)

Result: lost at Cincinnati 41-20
Next up: vs. UCF (9 a.m. on ESPNU)
Comment: We can’t help but wonder if the seat heat in Waco will get uncomfortably warm for Dave Aranda down the stretch. (Previous: 9)

11. Arizona (4-3/1-3)

Result: did not play
Next up: at Colorado (4 p.m. on FS1)
Comment: For all the angst following back-to-back losses, it’s worth noting that Arizona essentially went to the wire with teams (BYU and Houston) that are a combined 15-1. But now comes a beatable opponent the Wildcats need to handle, especially with two weeks to prepare. (Previous: 10)

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12. Kansas (4-4/2-3)

Result: lost to Kansas State 42-17
Next up: vs. Oklahoma State (1 p.m. on ESPN+)
Comment: If we assume success against the reeling Cowboys, then Kansas will need one victory in its final three games to clinch a postseason berth. But with Arizona and Iowa State on the road and Utah at home, the path is trickier than the math suggests. (Previous: 11)

13. UCF (4-3/1-3)

Result: did not play
Next up: at Baylor (9 a.m. on ESPNU)
Comment: The soft portion of the schedule is complete (to the degree that anything could be considered soft for a program in UCF’s condition). Good chance the Knights only win one more game. (Previous: 14)

14. Colorado (3-5/1-4)

Result: lost at Utah 53-7
Next up: vs. Arizona (4 p.m. on FS1)
Comment: It appears Travis Hunter was even more valuable than we thought. (Previous: 13)

15. West Virginia (2-6/0-5)

Result: lost to TCU 23-17
Next up: at Houston (9 a.m. on FS1)
Comment: The makeovers at Indiana, Houston and elsewhere merely serve to ramp up the pressure on Rich Rodriguez to turn the Mountaineers into a contender next season. The standard four-year rebuilding cycle has been whittled to two seasons with the transfer portal. (Previous: 15)

16. Oklahoma State (1-7/0-5)

Result: lost at Texas Tech 42-0
Next up: at Kansas (1 p.m. on ESPN+)
Comment: The hiring cycle has become vastly more competitive for OSU than it was at the time of Mike Gundy’s termination. And we suspect a few more sharks will enter the pool before the season ends. (Previous: 16)

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