Utah’s latest duel with a ranked opponent — the fourth of the season, for those scoring at home — is not the most strategically important game of the season for the Utes. That came in the Big 12 opener, when they lost to Texas Tech in resounding fashion.
Nor does it represent the most emotionally significant date on the schedule. That came two weeks ago, when they failed to hold a fourth-quarter lead against rival BYU.
But the clash with No. 17 Cincinnati on Saturday night is, without question, the most revealing game on the schedule — a three-hour CT scan that will expose the soul and structure of coach Kyle Whittingham’s 21st, and perhaps last, team.
Are the Utes contenders or pretenders?
Are they legitimate or fraudulent?
The answer will come clear by midnight on the first day of November.
Admittedly, the search for Utah’s identity has taken far longer than anticipated given everything the 24th-ranked Utes brought to the season.
From Whittingham’s determination to course-correct his program after the disappointing 2024 season to the sturdy defense under the direction of coordinator Morgan Scalley, from the supremely talented offensive line — Whittingham called the group the best of his tenure — to dynamic quarterback Devon Dampier and modernized offensive scheme, the Utes seemingly had the pieces in place for a run at the Big 12 title and College Football Playoff.
But with two months down and the stretch run remaining, Utah’s resume is stocked with contradictions that blur lines and complicate judgement:
— Utah’s six wins have come by an average of 37.3 points. The closest call? A 25-point victory at Wyoming in which the Utes led by 17 entering the fourth quarter.
In each instance, they approached the expected level of dominance and looked the part of a team capable of winning the Big 12.
— But the two losses were not pretty. The Utes were overpowered in the second half by Texas Tech and wilted in the fourth quarter against BYU, unable to convert critical fourth downs or avoid costly penalties.
In each instance, they were inefficient, undisciplined and resembled a team destined for the middle of the standings and fair-to-middlin’ bowl game.
Granted, plenty of teams in the Big 12 and elsewhere would be thrilled with two losses in eight games at the onset of November. But Utah’s two losses came in the trajectory-shaping matchups that mattered most.
(Granted, the Utes were terrific against Arizona State, the defending conference champs. But the Sun Devils were without star quarterback Sam Leavitt when they ventured into Rice-Eccles Stadium and therefore serve as a poor benchmark.)
More facts:
— The Utes are 6-0 against a collection of opponents with a combined record of 20-28.
— They are 0-2 against a duo that is 15-1.
The same team that dominates lesser competition has failed to meet the moment on the biggest stage. So here we are, on the precipice of the stretch run, wondering which Utah is the real Utah.
Contender or pretender?
Stout or hollow?
Time for another admission: The Hotline never imagined that Cincinnati would serve as the litmus test for Utah’s legitimacy.
Little was expected of the Bearcats, whose coach, Scott Satterfield, possessed one of the hottest seats in the Big 12 when the season began. After a narrow loss to Nebraska in the opener, the Bearcats have won seven in a row.
They opened conference play with a victory at Kansas, then beat Iowa State and Baylor decisively and are tied (why BYU) atop the Big 12 standings.
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In skill and experience, in talent and resolve, they are closer to Texas Tech and BYU than to Colorado, West Virginia.
Brendan Sorsby is a superb dual-threat quarterback and frontrunner for Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year.
The running game is elite and, even without starting tailback Evan Pryor, will test a Utah defense that struggled to stop Texas Tech and BYU on the ground. (Pryor’s backup, Tawee Walker, is a Wisconsin transfer who rushed for 97 yards against Oregon last year.)
The defense is stout on third down and in the Red Zone, a potential complication for Utah, which mustered just four (combined) touchdowns in the showdowns with the Red Raiders and Cougars.
Put another way: The Utes have repeatedly played the part of neighborhood bully, plastering opponents that are depleted, overmatched and outmanned. But when matched against someone of their own size, shape and talent, they have failed to hold their ground.
Another chance — perhaps their last chance — comes Saturday night.
Contender or pretender?
Genuine or phony?
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