About a quarter of voters in the Bay Area already have returned their ballot for the Nov. 4 special election, when California will decide the fate of a gerrymandering plan backed by Gov. Gavin Newsom, former President Barack Obama and other Democrats.

Election officials have received and accepted about 1.3 million ballots in the nine Bay Area counties, according to the most recent figures from the California Secretary of State’s office Friday. That’s about 28% of all ballots sent to Bay Area voters. Statewide, about 25% of all voters have returned a ballot. The Bay Area accounts for 23% of ballots returned so far in California.

What that means for Proposition 50, the only statewide contest on the ballot, is still unclear. Millions of voters still have plenty of time to return their ballots, and campaigns on both sides are making their final appeals. To be counted, mailed ballots must be postmarked on or before Nov. 4 and received by a local elections office by Nov. 12 at the latest. Ballots dropped off in person must be delivered before the polls close at 8 p.m. on Nov. 4.

If approved, Proposition 50 would replace the state’s U.S. House of Representatives districts with maps drawn by Democrats in the state Legislature to make five Republican-held seats in Central and Southern California more likely to flip Democratic.

Most of the solidly Democratic Bay Area — where Democrats already represent all the congressional districts — would not see major changes. Newsom and other proponents of the plan have said it’s an unfortunate but necessary response to GOP officials in Texas, who gerrymandered districts this summer to give their party an edge in the 2026 midterm elections.

The “Yes on 50” campaign has vastly out-raised and out-spent opponents while tapping national Democratic stars, including Obama and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Polls have showed that a majority of California likely voters support the measure.

Opponents include the California Republican Party, Republican former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, Republican former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and Charles Munger Jr., a megadonor who bankrolled campaigns to establish independent redistricting more than a decade ago.

The rate of voting — known as “turnout” — is typically lower in “odd-year” elections than in general elections when the presidency or congressional races are on the ballot.

But turnout so far is “slightly ahead” of this point in the November 2024 election, said Paul Mitchell, a data consultant and vice president of Political Data, Inc., who is considered a statewide expert on election data.

Mitchell said that doesn’t necessarily mean that turnout will reach that of last November, when about 71% of registered voters cast their ballot statewide. He expects at least 50% turnout when the election is said and done.

Mitchell, who works with Democratic groups, was hired by the state’s Democratic congressional delegation this summer to draw new maps designed to hand the party five more seats in the U.S. House. But he said his involvement with the plan ended months ago and he isn’t getting paid by the “Yes on 50” campaign or any other.

“I’m just going back to my voter data nerd stuff,” Mitchell said.

So far, registered Democrats and Republicans are returning their ballots at a slightly faster clip than this point in the November 2024 election, he said. Both parties have made a strong showing so far, Mitchell said.

But Republican officials in parts of the state have been fretting about their voters lagging in returning their ballots. A Berkeley IGS poll this week indicated 70% of those intending to vote in person on Election Day oppose Proposition 50. But Los Angeles County GOP Central Committee Member Elizabeth Barcohana has been urging her fellow Republicans to turn in ballots early.

“Millions still haven’t voted,” Barcohana posted on X. “GET OUT THERE, CALIFORNIA MAGA!!”

Statewide, Democrats have a big voter registration advantage, accounting for 45% of registered voters. Mitchell said 51% of returned ballots were from Democratic voters. But Republicans, who are 25% of the state’s registered voters, are also over-performing with a 28% share of votes on Prop. 50 so far.

Mitchell’s explanation? Both parties are “over-performing” because independent voters are largely sitting out the special election at the moment.

That may be because the messaging on both sides of Prop. 50 is so “partisan,” Mitchell said: On one hand, Newsom and Democrats are casting the measure as a way for Californians to stand up to President Donald Trump and the Republican Party nationally. On the other hand, the California Republican Party, led by chairperson Corrin Rankin, has blasted out mailers calling Prop. 50 a “power grab” by Newsom and state Democrats.

Or, as Mitchell summarized the campaigns, “‘Trump is horrible,’ ‘Newsom is horrible.’”