The Hotline mailbag publishes weekly. Send questions to [email protected] and include ‘mailbag’ in the subject line. Or hit me on the social media platform X: @WilnerHotline
Some questions have been edited for clarity and brevity.
Does Washington coach Jedd Fisch bolt to one of the big jobs if he gets the call? — @ErikWeis
The season could not have unfolded in better fashion for Jedd Fisch if he had scripted it himself — and we aren’t referring to Washington’s success on the field, although that’s an important component.
Nope, the Hotline is focused instead on the vacancies that have sprouted since the middle of September, will continue to sprout through the end of November and are beneficial to Fisch’s bank account.
By that, we mean the two college jobs that always made the most sense for Fisch are vacant: Florida, because he’s an alumnus; and UCLA, because he’s a former Bruins defensive coordinator (under Jim Mora) who loves Southern California.
In both situations, the interest could very well be mutual at precisely the time Washington finishes its season with a victory total that increases Fisch’s market value.
Remember, he already hauled Arizona out of the gutter, taking the Wildcats from 10-11 to 10-3 in three seasons. If the Huskies improve from six wins last year to nine (or 10) this season, Fisch will have proof of performance at two Power Four schools in a five-year span.
(Given their upcoming schedule, the Huskies should finish with at least nine wins.)
Florida’s first choice is believed to be Lane Kiffin. If the Gators swing and miss and Fisch is available following a nine- or 10-win season, the Gators could be tempted to lure him home.
Fisch could be high on UCLA’s wish list, as well. And to a certain extent, his level of interest is secondary.
How so?
Fisch’s agent, Doug Hendrickson, works for the Wasserman Group, whose CEO, Casey Wasserman, is UCLA’s biggest athletic donor and on the Bruins’ search committee. Attaching Fisch’s name to the vacancy in Westwood is good business: It creates a market for both UCLA and for Fisch.
At the very least, Hendrickson would want to leverage any vacancy into a new contract for Fisch on Montlake.
His current deal pays an average of $7.75 million annually, but the market will be reset once LSU and Penn State make their hires in late November or early December.
If there’s legitimate interest in Fisch’s services — or if Hendrickson does his job and there’s a perception of real interest — then Fisch could command $10 million annually (or more) to remain in Seattle.
And don’t forget, Washington agreed to a relatively modest buyout figure ($10 million) with Fisch in the winter of 2024 after Kalen DeBoer departed. So he will be seen as affordable.
Finally, a nugget for the back pocket: Although it’s highly unlikely, there’s a scenario in which Fisch ends up on the short list of candidates for the LSU job.
The Tigers not only need a coach; they need a president. And guess who’s a finalist? Former Arizona president Robert Robbins, who hired Fisch in Tucson in December 2020.
What if Robbins is named president in the next few weeks and the Huskies finish with a flourish, beat Oregon in the regular-season finale and qualify for the CFP?
Fisch would be one of the hottest coaches on the carousel and, perhaps, targeted by Robbins and interim athletic director Verge Ausberry.
There are numerous possible scenarios for Fisch, with UW’s soft finishing schedule (except for Oregon) serving as a key supporting player in the drama.
At minimum, he’s well positioned for a hefty raise.
What are the odds the ghost of The Kingfish provides input as to the next LSU coach? — @CDilligaff
For those unfamiliar, the ‘Kingfish’ is former Louisiana Governor Huey Long, whose career was the inspiration for Robert Penn Warren’s masterpiece, All The King’s Men (one of the Hotline’s favorites).
The sarcasm is timely given that current Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry has been heavily involved in the LSU mess over the past 72 hours and basically fired athletic director Scott Woodward, who was responsible for Brian Kelly’s immense buyout.
We have included the question for two reasons:
1. LSU is the most coveted coaching vacancy at this point and, once filled, will start a chain reaction through the system that could impact the West Coast (much like Nick Saban’s retirement from Alabama in January 2024 led to openings at Washington, Arizona and San Jose State).
2. The Tigers are the latest power conference program to make a coaching change, but they won’t be the last. We expect another 25-30 vacancies to materialize by the time the coaching carousel stops spinning in January.
That’s not to suggest two dozen coaches will be fired. But each vacancy filled by a sitting head coach from another school, as opposed to a coordinator, would create the ripple effect referenced above with Alabama.
Put another way: 15 dismissals at the Power Four level will lead to another 10-15 openings, and those openings would lead to more openings, and so on.
December will be absolutely wild.
What’s the current Oregon State hotlist? Is Jonathan Smith a part of it, and could he bring back Trent Bray as defensive coordinator? — @ColAthAdv_Will
If the Beavers have a shortlist at this point, they are going about the process all wrong.
They cannot possibly know which sitting head coaches will be available, which schools they will be competing against or, crucially, how potential candidates will fare on the field during the stretch run.
It’s far too early to identify finalists. Instead, the Beavers should be performing background checks, mustering their (financial) resources and developing a strategy to attract the best candidate they can find when the time is appropriate.
Admittedly, the Smith situation is fascinating. His support is eroding at Michigan State due largely to an 0-5 record in Big Ten play. The Spartans could make an in-season change or wait it out. But we don’t see a pathway for Smith, in just his second season, to be retained.
Should Oregon State put hard feelings aside and bring home the prodigal son, who won 18 games in his final two seasons in Corvallis?
Sequels rarely work out — Mack Brown’s second stint at North Carolina was more exception than rule — but the Beavers must follow whatever path will excite their largest donors and generate cash for NIL and revenue sharing.
If that coach is Smith 2.0, so be it.
Who would be a home run hire for Stanford? — @NerdNation07
The equivalent of Freddie Freeman in the bottom of the 18th inning would be former Penn State coach James Franklin, mostly based on his prior success at Vanderbilt.
Stanford has the wherewithal to attract Franklin’s interest if the Cardinal chooses to open the checkbook and commit the resources necessary to compete for the ACC title and College Football Playoff berths.
But Franklin will have plenty of options in the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic — for example, Virginia Tech is currently vacant — and might prefer to remain in familiar territory.
Assuming Franklin isn’t available, the Cardinal has two primary considerations:
— Should it hire an experienced head coach or a current coordinator?
— Should it opt for an alumnus familiar with the school’s unique challenges or target an outside candidate?
Former quarterback Tavita Pritchard, who was Stanford’s offensive coordinator in the final years of the David Shaw era and is currently the Washington Commanders’ quarterback coach, is an obvious option — albeit one with significant risk because of his lack of head coaching experience.
We’re assuming general manager Andrew Luck will lead the process with limited input from athletic director John Donahoe and his special advisor, Tara VanDerveer.
But as an institution, Stanford has made one bad football decision after another for the past decade — hence the current situation — so anything is possible.
Is Cal’s Justin Wilcox coaching for his job this weekend? — @bfeder510
That’s probably an overstatement — one game won’t doom Wilcox. But in our view, his job is on the line in November.
Chancellor Rich Lyons and general manager Ron Rivera have raised the bar for success: Winning six games and playing in the LA Bowl is no longer enough given the resources devoted to the football program.
Yet there’s no indication that Wilcox can clear the new bar.
The Bears (5-3) started well but played poorly in the middle portion of the schedule, barely beating bad teams (Boston College and North Carolina), losing decisively to Duke and getting overrun by Virginia Tech. The offensive line is mediocre, the receivers are substandard and the defense has not performed to expectations.
All of which suggests trouble entering a difficult stretch run that includes Virginia (7-1), Louisville (6-1) and SMU (5-3), plus Stanford.
It will take some help, certainly with Minnesota and USC, but could Dan Lanning and Oregon shoot 9-of-12 in making opposing coaches lose their job or receive an extension? Have you seen anything like this before? — Will D
A thorough answer would require significant research. But yes, many of Oregon’s 2025 opponents have experienced news on the coaching front.
Penn State (Franklin), Oregon State (Trent Bray) and Oklahoma State (Mike Gundy) all fired their coaches while Indiana (Curt Cignetti) went the extension route. Meanwhile, Wisconsin (Luke Fickell) could make a change during or after the season.
That’s five.
Minnesota isn’t firing PJ Fleck, but he is well-regarded in the industry and could leave for another job.
Fisch’s status at Washington is evolving, as noted above.
But let’s focus on USC, where Lincoln Riley has reached a tipping point, in our view.
The Trojans struggled last year (7-6) but are currently 5-2 with several toss-up games remaining. It’s hardly a stretch to envision them finishing 9-3 or even 10-2. That said, a 7-5 record is entirely plausible.
And if the latter scenario becomes reality, there will be intense pressure on the administration to make a change.
Can the Trojans afford to move on from Riley? Our educated guess, based on conversations with sources, is that Riley would be owed approximately $80 million if terminated after this season.
Even for USC, that’s a massive amount.
Then again, the Hotline would not be surprised if a strong finish creates a market for Riley in late November and he leaves USC willingly.
In fact, that might be the best outcome for all the involved parties.
Can you confirm rumors of Bill Belichick heading to Corvallis and getting The Peacock anointed as the best bar in America? — @blackdogpdx
Oregon State fans can dream, can’t they — not about The Peacock getting the accolades it deserves but, rather, a high-profile coach having interest in the vacancy.
If that’s the case, it won’t be Belichick for more reasons than we can count.
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Atop that list: The Hotline doesn’t expect him to leave North Carolina willingly, and we certainly don’t believe the powerbrokers who orchestrated the hire will admit they were wrong and fire the six-time Super Bowl winner after just one season.
But it’s a cautionary tale for Oregon State, Stanford, UCLA, LSU and every other school with a vacancy: If non-football voices are allowed to influence the process, the likelihood of failure increases exponentially.
Put another way: Search committees are a terrible mechanism for hiring coaches, especially if the committee has actual authority and doesn’t exist simply to provide cover for the athletic director.
That’s more true now than ever because college football is more complicated than it was 10 or 15 years ago by an order of magnitude.
(North Carolina athletic director Bubba Cunningham was not involved in the Belichick hire — he purportedly wanted Tulane’s Jon Sumrall — and the Tar Heels are paying the price.)
Within the complexity is the rapidly disappearing wall between institutional expertise and the fans and donors.
In the era of NIL and revenue sharing, schools are increasingly reliant on financial support from their constituents. That makes pleasing those constituents, so they will open the checkbooks, more important than ever before.
Here’s the problem: The more reliant schools become on external dollars, the more likely they are to respond to public outcry. And fans and donors are nothing if not reactionary.
We’re skeptical that Penn State and LSU would have made in-season changes (under the same on-field circumstances) a decade ago.
But the game has changed. Timelines have shortened, thresholds for success have increased, patience has vanished and the will of the people reigns supreme. As a result, the coaching carousel is spinning like never before.
The biggest winners in all this? That’s easy: The agents.
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