BERKELEY — The Cal football team, which doesn’t seem to know what kind of season it’s going to have, gets its highest-profile chance yet to make an impression when No. 15 Virginia visits Memorial Stadium for the first time on Saturday afternoon.
If the inclination is to wonder if this is when the Bears (5-3, 2-2 ACC) head south for good with a third loss in four games, there is another side to the story.
Picked to finish just 14th in the ACC, one spot ahead of Cal, the Cavaliers (7-1, 4-0) have won six games in a row for the first time since 2007 and are one of just two teams still unbeaten in the conference. And yet, the Vegas oddsmakers favor them by the modest margin of 4.5 points against the Golden Bears.
Likewise, the ESPN SP+ ratings, a formula that judges how a team might fare going forward based on its body of work, rank Virginia just 52nd in the country, ninth among ACC teams.
What does all of this mean for a Cal team that began the season 3-0, got blitzed 34-0 by underdog San Diego State, sandwiched hair-raising victories over Boston College and North Carolina around a 24-point home loss to Duke, then took a 5-2 record to Virginia Tech before losing 42-34 in double-overtime last Friday to what was a two-win Hokies squad?
California Golden Bears running back Kendrick Raphael (1) is gang tackled by the Duke Blue Devils in the second half of their game at Memorial Stadium in Berkeley, Calif., on Saturday, Oct. 4, 2025. The Duke Blue Devils defeated the California Golden Bears 45-21. (Jose Carlos Fajardo/Bay Area News Group)
Does it suggest Cal could actually topple the Cavaliers?
Virginia’s recent run includes four straight victories that scream vulnerability.
The Cavaliers won in overtime twice, double-overtime once and by a 22-20 margin over Washington State on the strength of a decisive safety in the final 3 minutes. Their 17-16 win at North Carolina last week wasn’t secure until they stopped a two-point conversion inches shy of the goal line in overtime.
If you were expecting Cal coach Justin Wilcox might pronounce Virginia the luckiest team in America … well, seriously?
“They’re making the plays they need to win,” Wilcox said. “They’re a good team. They find ways to win.”
A Virginia victory on Saturday would be the first time ever (in five tries) Virginia has found a way to win in the Pacific time zone.
Wilcox is hoping the crowd in Berkeley on what is forecast to be sunny and 70 degrees on Saturday afternoon will inspire his team.
Head coach Justin Wilcox of the California Golden Bears looks on against the North Carolina Tar Heels at California Memorial Stadium on Oct. 17, 2025 in Berkeley, California. (Photo by Thien-An Truong/Getty Images)
What the Bears need more than perfect California weather is improved California run defense. They allowed 357 rushing yards — the most in 100 games under Wilcox — in their loss at Virginia Tech.
Meeting with reporters this week, Wilcox dissected the problem, explaining that tackling is three-pronged task, including one aspect players can always control.
“A lot of tackling has to do with how badly you want to get the guy on the ground,” he said. “There’s technique, there’s athletic ability, which is a big part. Then the want-to or pride in getting the guy on the ground is critically important.”
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Was Wilcox taking a shot at his players, trying to motivate them or simply explaining the process?
Either way, Virginia coach Tony Elliott was not biting. His team has rushed for more than 200 yards four times this season, but had a season-low 59 yards on the ground at Carolina. And the Cavs’ offense, which averaged nearly 46 points through five games, is producing just 23 points the past three.
“We’re not going to focus on what happened last week from a statistical standpoint,” Elliott said. “It’s a good football team we’re getting ready to go up against.”
With just four games left in the regular season — and bowl eligibility still not clinched — the Bears are still trying prove that Elliott’s praise is deserved.
