Kurtenbach: Do the Warriors really think they can load manage their way to the playoffs?

If you squinted hard enough at the box score from the Warriors game in Sacramento on Wednesday, you could sell yourself that it was a positive performance.

No Steph Curry. No Jimmy Butler. No Draymond Green. The Warriors, trotting out a line-up that had a distinct G-League feel to it, somehow took the (also shorthanded) Kings down to the final minute. Will Richard — yes, the second-round rookie — dropped 30. Moses Moody and Jonathan Kuminga poured in 28 and 24, respectively.

It was a moral victory, right?

Sure.

Only moral victories don’t mean a thing in the NBA’s Western Conference.

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And if we’ve already resorted to moral victories and silver linings with the 2025-26 Dubs, well, then this whole operation is smelling a bit funny.

We’ve seen the Warriors when they are humming. They look unapproachable. Curry and Butler playing like their MVP-caliber selves, Green and Al Horford are running the defensive end like they own the patent. When they are at their best, I like the Warriors’ chances against anyone.

But that “best” seems to show up about as often as TikTok’s algorithm shows you a useful video.

Last week, the Warriors sleepwalked through losses to the Pacers and the Bucks, two teams that, frankly, they should be able to beat with one hand tied behind their backs. And then on Wednesday, they punted a back-to-back against Sacramento. Now they’re 5-4. That’s good for seventh place in the West, which brings us to the existential question facing this team:

Can the Golden State Warriors load-manage their way out of the play-in tournament?

Right now, the smart money says “no.”

And yet the Play-In is the basketball equivalent of riding your bicycle through a minefield — extra games, extra travel, extra stress. It’s the last thing you want for a team built around players born in the 1980s.

As it stands, I’m banking on three teams locking up half of those six guaranteed playoff spots in the West: The Thunder, the Rockets, and the Nuggets. Then you have the Lakers and the Spurs, who, in the first month of the season are playing with the kind of cohesion that makes you think they’re going to stick around the top, too.

That leaves exactly one spot for the underperforming triumvirate of the Warriors, the Clippers, and the Timberwolves.

The Clippers are a hot mess, a megayacht that can’t find its way out of the harbor. The Timberwolves were without Anthony Edwards for a stretch. But what is Golden State’s excuse?

Being old?

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Wednesday was the first game Curry or Butler missed this season. Yet, after starting 4-1, the Dubs have dropped three of their last four. When your superstar veterans are in the lineup, you have to be making hay — everyone knows they aren’t going to be active every night.

I understand the early schedule has been a beast. They’ve seen more back-to-backs than a chiropractor and will spend more time in the air than a flight attendant. It’s a brutal pace.

But even the calmer portions of the schedule — which won’t really arrive until 2026 — will still be tough to manage for the Dubs.

The Warriors have no choice but to manage them — picking their spots to rest their veteran stars, trusting the young guys to pick up the slack amid (hopefully) lesser competition. Perhaps the Second Timeline Dubs can shock a team or two like the Warriors were shocked by the Pacers and Bucks last week.

But running the calculus on this equation, it’s proving ever more difficult to imagine a best-case scenario — the Warriors landing a top-four seed in the West — coming to fruition. The top six is looking less likely with every full-strength game tossed away.

And Wednesday was a not-so-subtle reminder that the Warriors are going to be punting games this season.

Perhaps those punts are limited (one every few weeks, eight or nine in total), and maybe the Dubs steal a win or two in a game like that, but the standard has been set.

The Warriors’ top gear can match up against anyone’s. But the regular season isn’t a sprint, it’s a marathon. And in this Western Conference, where there’s no margin for error, the Warriors might already be falling behind the pace.