In 362 days California voters will choose a new governor. That’s just around the corner in political terms, given the expense and organizational lift a statewide campaign requires in the nation’s most populous state.

The winner almost certainly will be — as certain as anything in politics can be — a Democrat. If nothing else, the passage of Proposition 50, Gov. Gavin Newsom’s mid-decade congressional district gerrymander, confirms anew that California is a one-party state.

But which Democrat?

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As the 2026 election cycle gears up — candidates can start filing paperwork next month — the field of would-be successors to Newsom is becoming even cloudier.

U.S. Sen. Alex Padilla, who political media had been portraying as leaning toward running for governor, abruptly dropped out of consideration Tuesday during a Washington press conference to discuss the federal government shutdown.

“It is with a full heart and even more commitment than ever that I am choosing to not run for governor of California next year,” Padilla said. “I choose not just to stay in the Senate, I choose to stay in this fight.”

Had he opted-in, Padilla would have been the immediate frontrunner. By opting-out, he adds himself to the list of seemingly heavyweight contenders who decided governing California isn’t an attractive career move.

Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis was the first to go, dropping out in August, four months after announcing her candidacy. She was followed by former Vice President Kamala Harris, who wrote a book to explain how she failed to win the presidency last year. Toni Atkins, former president pro tem of the state Senate, also exited, acknowledging she probably couldn’t succeed.

Padilla’s decision leaves a handful of announced Democratic hopefuls still running, but none with anything close to dominant status, along with a few more potentials who have yet to declare one way or the other.

Of those who have announced, former Congresswoman Katie Porter had an early lead in polling, although under 20% support, but she was heavily damaged when videos surfaced of her harsh reaction to a reporter’s question and snapping at one of her staffers. Porter apologized but the incidents undermined her likeability, no small thing in political terms.

At the moment, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and former Attorney General and Biden cabinet member Xavier Becerra seem to have the best prospects among the declared candidates, but once again we’re waiting for other potential candidates to get in or get out.

All eyes are on businessman Rick Caruso, who’s weighing whether to seek the governorship or run again for mayor of Los Angeles. He lost his first mayoral bid to Karen Bass, but her popularity has waned due to her handling of the city’s disastrous fires.

Austin Beutner, a businessman and former superintendent of Los Angeles Unified School District, has already declared that he’ll challenge Bass, which puts some pressure on Caruso to make his intentions known.

Wealthy investor Tom Steyer, who ran for president in 2020, pumped millions of dollars into his own campaign for Proposition 50, sparking speculation he might run for governor.

Caruso and Steyer could easily finance campaigns for governor, freeing themselves from the chore of raising money and thus incurring political debts to supporters. That alone would make them viable candidates.

Former state Controller Betty Yee and Tony Thurmond, the state superintendent of schools, are still declared candidates but don’t appear to be gaining traction.

Finally, there’s some buzz in political media about Bay Area Congressman Eric Swalwell, after one private poll included his name.

Until the field becomes clearer, political media, would-be campaign contributors and California voters will just have to twiddle their thumbs.

Dan Walters is a CalMatters columnist.