Days after Tuesday’s special election, the San Jose District 3 City Council race has become a showdown for second-place and with the margins razor thin, a recount is likely to determine the candidate who will face Gabby Chavez-Lopez in a June runoff.

Chavez-Lopez, the executive director of the Latina Coalition of Silicon Valley, continues to garner about 30% of the vote, outpacing the seven-person field vying to replace disgraced former Councilmember Omar Torres, who pleaded no contest this week to sexual abuse charges involving a minor, adding an element of closure to the scandal that brought months of turmoil to the dais.

“We’re full steam ahead going into the runoff,” Chavez-Lopez said Friday. “What we’ve been doing – and the message we’ve been sharing – is clearly resonating with voters, so we’re focused on continuing that momentum.”

But the distance between Matthew Quevedo, San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan’s deputy chief of staff, and darkhorse candidate Anthony Tordillos to join a runoff remains one vote, with their place in the pecking order flipping multiple times already and giving true meaning to the old saying, “every vote counts.”

“We are grateful for all the voters who supported our campaign for the cornerstones of commonsense and we thank the elections officials working so hard to complete a full and final count of the votes,” Quevedo said.

Along with Chavez-Lopez, Quevedo and Tordillos, those seeking to succeed Torres included pro tem judge and former City Council candidate Irene Smith, retired law enforcement officer Adam Duran, retired family counselor Tyrone Wade and knife sharpener salesman Phil Dolan. Smith is trailing in fourth place with 16 percent of the vote in the latest voting results released by the Santa Clara County Registrar of Voters.

Pundits had always thought Chavez-Lopez, Quevedo and Tordillos were among the top contenders for the seat, which appeared predestined to end up in a runoff because of the candidates’ expertise and the crowded field.

Although Chavez-Lopez has stayed at the front of the pack, her successful campaign has only ensured she continues in the race as the two top vote-getters will square off on June 24 because no candidate has received more than 50% of the vote.

With the might of the South Bay Labor Council behind her, Chavez-Lopez has built a reputation as a coalition builder and has focused her campaign on improving safety and cleanliness, increasing housing density and streamlining development, ensuring small business success and creating a vibrant, inclusive downtown core.

Quevedo, who has earned 22.18% of the vote, has mirrored the talking points of Mahan, framing his candidacy as a break from establishment politics as they attempt to produce real, tangible results in tackling the homelessness epidemic, increasing community safety, cleaning up neighborhoods, growing the economy and building more housing. He has also championed several of Mahan’s most recent initiatives, including the “Responsibility to Shelter” proposal, considered controversial by some, leading experts to believe Quevedo’s performance in the election was a referendum on such policies.

“He created a referendum on the agenda just by the way he has campaigned,” said Bob Staedler, a land-use consultant and former candidate for the District 3 appointment. “He misrepresents that ‘We’re the outsiders and we’re not the establishment.’ When you live in a nuanced world, facts tend to get a little fuzzy.”

However, Dr. Melinda Jackson, a politics professor at San Jose State and District 3 resident,  was not ready to make that declaration with the race still in flux.

Jackson said that while she expected Chavez-Lopez and Quevedo to finish in the top two spots, Smith likely steered some votes away that would have gone to Quevedo.

“If he comes in third, then it is definitely saying that in this district, people are not completely aligned with the mayor,” Jackson said.

Meanwhile, Tordillos has continued his strong performance and portrayed himself as the alternative to the status quo, offering to make progress on the most pressing issues in the community, like homelessness, affordable housing development, public safety, and improving downtown vibrancy.

The Santa Clara County Registrar of Voters will continue to accept mail-in ballots by April 15 so long as they were postmarked by April 8. The results will be certified by April 28.

Should the race remain this tight, it could trigger a recount. County policy mandates an automatic review for contests with a margin of victory less than .25% or where that margin is less than 25 total votes.

While state and federal races are not subject to the county policy, in last year’s congressional race to replace Anna Eshoo, Evan Low defeated Santa Clara County Supervisor Joe Simitian in the primary after a recount broke an initial tie, advancing him to a general election showdown with former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo.

With the district’s low propensity to vote and the runoff not taking place in a presidential year, Jackson said she did not expect a significant bump in turnout in June.

Jackson said it remains to be seen where the new votes and those cast for candidates who did not advance could go in the next round, especially for the more conservative residents in the progressive district, and the outcome could become more convoluted if Tordillos squeaks by Quevedo.

“They may feel like they can’t support any of the candidates,” Jackson said. “Others might hold their nose and vote for who they think is the least objectionable.”

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While there remains uncertainty over what the final matchup will look like, Chavez-Lopez said that regardless of the challenger who emerges by April 28, it won’t have any bearing on her campaign’s approach.

“We’re focused on connecting with as many voters as possible, especially those who supported other candidates this time around,” Chavez-Lopez said. “I hope to earn their trust and their vote in the runoff. I’m also really looking forward to going even deeper on the issues that matter most to our residents.”