Kurtenbach: The 49ers’ first-round draft pick should be their easiest

SANTA CLARA — The 49ers cannot have the home-run draft they need without nailing their first-round pick, scheduled to be No. 11 on Thursday.

The plan is to take a defensive lineman. An interior player is preferable, but an end will work too.

Of course, as John Lynch said Tuesday, “a draft breaks out and you never know what’s going to happen.”

However, the way draft boards seem to be shaking out suggests that things couldn’t be working out better for the 49ers.

If San Francisco stays at No. 11, I have every indication that they’ll be able to select a defensive lineman who can make an immediate, substantial impact on the team in 2025 and beyond.

And they won’t have to stretch or reach to do it either.

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I wish I could give you a firm prediction of who the 49ers’ pick will be, because I can’t reliably tell you what the teams preceding the Niners will do. Do the Raiders even know what they will do at No. 6?

But I know enough to say that the Niners should be sitting pretty. There’s no need for this team to trade up, nor should they get cute and trade down.

That’s because the Niners could land either the No. 1 player on my draft board, the top defensive tackle, or the defensive tackle with the highest ceiling in this class.

Any one of the three would be a triumph of a pick.

The biggest win would be landing Georgia defensive end Mykel Williams. In a draft class that I have found to be underwhelming, I keep finding new ways to be amazed by Williams.

Let me tell you about my favorite game during the last few months: I would open up the All-22 cut-ups of Williams, pick a random game against a top opponent, and then scroll to a random part of the game.

No rhyme or reason, just chance.

And then I’d watch Williams win his rep. Every. Single. Time.

“You end up struggling when you project too much. These guys have had ample time,” Lynch said. “At some point, the production doesn’t lie.”

And that, folks, is why you cross Texas A&M defensive tackle and workout warrior Shemar Stewart off your list of possibilities for the Niners at No. 11. He’s No. 32 on my board.

Williams is my No. 1, as in I’d take him over Travis Hunter. You don’t have to agree with me now, but you’ll come around when he’s in the NFL.

So for him to possibly be available at No. 11 overall to the Niners would be downright malpractice from 10 other teams.

Then again, general malpractice is why so many of the top-10 teams are consistently picking early.

If this first round didn’t appear to be breaking the Niners’ way, I would have suggested that San Francisco trade up to draft Williams. But seeing as it is, they can take the risk of standing pat.

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That’s because if Williams isn’t available, one (or both) of my top two defensive tackles — Michigan’s Mason Graham (No. 8), and Ole Miss’ Walter Nolen (No. 11) — will be available to San Francisco.

Graham has been discussed as a top-five lock for the last few months, but that was groupthink at its finest. No one seemed to check with the teams in the top five about picking him, and I don’t get the impression from my conversations that they will.

After that juncture, the slip is on — the second half of the top 10 is better set at defensive tackle.

It’s not much of a fall from No. 5 to No. 11, but it will feel significant on Thursday for those who follow national, I’m-just-guessing mock drafts.

For the Niners, it would bring the highest-floor defensive tackle — no flash, all crash — down to them. Seeing as this team is currently planning on starting Jordan Elliott and Evan Anderson at defensive tackle, with a lawn chair and Kevin Givens as backups, taking a technician with exceptional play balance that inspires confidence that he can give you starter reps in Week 1 would be manna from heaven.

Or the Niners could take Nolen, who will almost certainly be available at No. 11.

There has been a lot of talk about Nolen’s temperament and off-the-field vibes this draft cycle. Did he act a bit big-time at Ole Miss? I can corroborate that. Then again, he was making more than many of the team’s assistant coaches — the power dynamic in college sports is strange these days. While the players are paid a lot more in the NFL, the power dynamic between coaches and players is a lot healthier. You don’t listen, you don’t play. I suspect Nolen understands that — he is, by all accounts, a sharp guy.

I haven’t heard nearly enough about Nolen’s on-the-field play in the last few weeks and months. It’s exceptional.

He’s the prototype 3-technique in a one-gap system like the 49ers run.

He’s such an obvious fit that part of the character smearing of Nolen feels like an intentional smokescreen from the Philadelphia Eagles, who (because they run a similar scheme) no doubt covet him as well.

I’d be willing to bet big on Nolen, who has the potential to be everything the 49ers thought they were getting in Javon Hargrave when they signed him to a four-year, $84 million contract in 2023. He can also be more. There’s a reason Ole Miss paid him all that money.

And though he might not be a plug-and-play starter for Week 1 because of some pad-level concerns, he’d be a great pick at No. 11.

So, who is it going to be? The do-it-all defensive lineman who can explode into the backfield, set the edge, play inside, and be a perfect 5-technique prospect across from Nick Bosa?

The ready-for-the-NFL bowling ball defensive tackle who could “fall” to No. 11?

Or do you go for the defensive tackle with crazy explosion, who will have at least a few people in the facility standing on the table?

If the Niners are lucky, they’ll have all three available to select. Even picking between two would be a win. But one of the three will be there, and that has to be, at the very least, comforting to a team that cannot miss with this pick.

Yes, for the 49ers, their first-round pick might be the easiest to make.

Rarely do things work out so well for a team in the middle of the first round.

Of course, there’s the rest of the draft and six other starter-caliber players who need to be picked.

That, of course, won’t be as easy.

But at least the Niners will be off to a good start.