AI euphoria to fuel 20% rally by end-2026, Evercore ISI says

(Bloomberg/Julien Ponthus) — US stocks can rise another 20% by the end of 2026, driven by the excitement around artificial intelligence, according to strategists at Evercore ISI.

The S&P 500 is forecast to reach 7,750 points by the end of next year, with “a technological revolution lifting stocks, multiples and society to new heights,” Evercore ISI chief equity and quantitative strategist Julian Emanuel wrote in a note. That implies a 20% gain from Friday’s close, and would follow an almost 10% rally for the US benchmark so far this year.

Emanuel’s 2026 target is the highest on the Street so far, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The strategists wrote that the impact of AI means earnings have been defying expectations. The second quarter delivered “double-digit growth and broad upside surprises despite tariff/policy uncertainty,” they wrote.

US stocks have gained for four straight months, hitting fresh records multiple times, on optimism around robust corporate earnings and potential interest rate cuts. The rally has been driven by the tech sector, with the likes of Nvidia Corp., Meta Platforms Inc. and Microsoft Corp. all up at least 20% this year.

Tesla tops sales in Norway where almost all new cars are EVs

Tesla asks court to throw out big damage award in crash by arguing comments about Musk misled jury

Stocks hit by tech selloff after economic reports: Markets Wrap

Musk seeks to dismiss SEC suit over Twitter stake disclosure

Nvidia’s hyper-growth keeps stock valuation out of bubble zone

The Evercore ISI strategists acknowledged a wide range of outcomes for next year. Their bull case would see the index reaching 9,000 points if animal spirits take hold in consumer, business and investor confidence, while a bear case envisages the gauge dropping to 5,000 points if inflation stays high and economic growth is subdued.

Read: Stock Market’s Fate Comes Down to Next 14 Trading Sessions

Emanuel also raised his target for 2025, and now expects the benchmark to end this year at 6,250 points — below Friday’s closing level of 6,460, and slightly lower than the average 6,370 target among strategists tracked by Bloomberg. US markets are closed for a public holiday on Monday.

“AI is ‘bigger’ than the Internet,” the strategists wrote. “In three years, its effect has touched all parts of society and industry even as adoption only begins to inflect.”

–With assistance from Subrat Patnaik.

More stories like this are available on bloomberg.com