Welcome to a new feature on the Hotline — a regular, but not quite weekly, examination of the Power Four.
The column will be published each Monday through the end of September as the barrage of non-conference matchups provides fresh data. Once October arrives and teams enter the heart of conference play, the column will switch to a bi-monthly schedule.
Although the College Football Playoff uses a clunkier, murkier selection process than the NCAA Tournament, the early-season results help frame decisions made months later.
How the ACC performs head-to-head against the Big Ten, for example, will lend context to the CFP selection committee’s rankings on the first Sunday of December.
Our view of the conference hierarchy:
(Records against Power Four conferences include results against Notre Dame.)
1. SEC
Non-conference record: 27-3 (90 percent)
Record vs. Power Four: 8-2
Best wins: LSU over Clemson and Oklahoma over Michigan
Worst losses: Florida to South Florida and Alabama to Florida State
Comment: The SEC opened the season with two high-profile losses (to Ohio State and Florida State) but has dominated since that double-whammy with a 3-0 mark against the Big 12 and 4-1 against the ACC. And it’s not the usual suspects doing the dirty work: Vanderbilt won at Virginia Tech; Mississippi State toppled defending Big 12 champ Arizona State; Missouri beat Kansas; and Auburn won at Baylor. Whether the top of the SEC is stronger than the top of the Big Ten is up for debate. But there’s no question which conference has the deepest lineup of good teams.
2. Big Ten
Non-conference record: 31-5 (86.1 percent)
Record vs. Power Four: 5-3
Best wins: Ohio State over Texas and Illinois over Duke
Worst losses: Northwestern to Tulane and UCLA to UNLV
Comment: The sample size ticked up for the Big Ten, which won three of five matchups with power conference opponents in Week 2. That said, the conference didn’t exactly face the best of the best. The three wins were against Duke, Boston College and Oklahoma State, while the Big Ten lost its matchups against ranked opponents from the SEC (Oklahoma) and Big 12 (Iowa State). Unfortunately, several of the better teams (Penn State, for sure, but also USC and Washington) have soft early-season schedules, limiting our data points. Also, the bottom of the conference is rapidly becoming a problem.
3. Big 12
Non-conference record: 24-8 (75 percent)
Record vs. Power Four: 5-6
Best wins: Iowa State over Iowa and Baylor over SMU
Worst losses: West Virginia to Ohio and Oklahoma State to Oregon
Comment: The best thing that could be said about the Big 12 at this point is that it’s not the ACC. Kansas State’s implosion against Army and Arizona State’s loss at Mississippi State aren’t on the level of West Virginia’s ghastly result, but they sure aren’t quality losses. Also, the Big 12 is 0-3 against the SEC, a record the latter conference’s media machinery will undoubtedly highlight at playoff selection time. There aren’t many chances left for Big 12 teams to polish their collective resume. They need conquests like SMU and Iowa to have strong seasons within their leagues.
Related Articles
Big Ten power rankings Week 3: Ohio State, Oregon lead as bad losses mount
Big 12 power rankings Week 3: Iowa State, Utah on top after wild weekend
Pac-12 power rankings (Week 3): Texas State on top, Oregon State melts down
Saturday Night Five: Making sense of ASU’s loss, Oregon State’s meltdown and big wins by Utah, Cal, Arizona and Washington
On media: Dave Portnoy on Big Noon Kickoff creates a precarious situation for Fox and Ohio State
4. ACC
Non-conference record: 23-11 (67.6 percent)
Record vs. Power Four: 3-9
Best wins: Miami over Notre Dame and Florida State over Alabama
Worst losses: Virginia Tech to Vanderbilt and Stanford to Hawaii
Comment: Slotting the ACC into fourth place was as easy as slotting the SEC into first — the results are ugly and getting worse by the week. (On Saturday, the ACC was 0-5 against Power Four opponents.) Miami, Florida State and Clemson could finish the regular season as three of the best 12 or 15 teams in the land, and a solid second tier of four or five teams could emerge. But the bottom half of the conference? It might very well be dreadful, folks.
*** Send suggestions, comments and tips (confidentiality guaranteed) to [email protected] or call 408-920-5716
*** Follow me on the social media platform X: @WilnerHotline
