One of several intriguing questions from the Big 12’s offseason might have the beginnings of an answer.
What if Arizona is this year’s Arizona State?
What if the Wildcats are the team with no expectations and (supposedly) no hope that appears from nowhere and wins the conference?
It’s a few weeks too early for serious contemplation, of course. But the Wildcats took a major step forward Friday night when they overcame a series of gaffes and held off Kansas State 23-17 to remain undefeated.
They could collapse and finish the season closer to the bottom of the conference than they top.
They could meander to a middle-tier position.
Also, there’s competition in the race to produce the greatest upside surprise. Houston has been impressive thus far. TCU is a possibility. Same with UCF.
The Big 12 is so stocked with parity that anyone — well, almost anyone — can become the 2025 version of Arizona State.
If that team is Arizona, the twist would come with an added turn. After all, Arizona State was the 2024 version of Arizona.
Recall the fall of 2023, final year of the former Pac-12, when Arizona was picked eighth in the preseason media poll under third-year coach Jedd Fisch.
The Wildcats stumbled early but got hot in October, won 10 games, beat Oklahoma in the Alamo Bowl and were one of the biggest surprises in the country. With a No. 14 ranking, they would have been in the conversation for a berth in the College Football Playoff had the event expanded that season.
Then came realignment, the creation of the 16-team Big 12 and ASU’s rise from nowhere.
Expectations for the Sun Devils in 2024, the second season of Kenny Dillingham’s tenure, were admittedly lower than they were for Arizona in ’23. But there was more upside room available in the Big 12 given the absence of powerhouse teams at the top. Picked 16th in the preseason poll, ASU was the last team standing in December and advanced to the CFP.
The Big 12 didn’t publish a preseason poll this summer, but the Wildcats would have been picked for the bottom half, perhaps even the bottom quartile. Coach Brent Brennan’s first season was such a shambles that his job security received more attention nationally than essential changes to the coaching staff, depth chart and chemistry.
But through three games, it’s clear the Wildcats are a different team.
Quarterback Noah Fifita does not look as burdened with expectations.
The running game is impactful and the defense, under first-year coordinator Danny Gonzales, looks stout.
There is greater energy, more speed and better deployment of personnel.
Arizona would have run Kansas State off the field Friday night but for a series of blunders. A botched punt that led to a touchdown. Missed field goals. Dropped passes. Too many holding penalties and false starts to count.
Add a perplexing abandonment of the running game during several stretches, and the overall performance was hardly polished.
Which is exactly the point: The Wildcats are 3-0 with clear room for growth.
If they cut back on mistakes, especially along the offensive line, the Wildcats will be difficult to beat in a conference with no obvious favorite. It’s mid-September, and they are halfway to the bowl berth that, presumably, would provide Brennan with added job security.
Now comes a break (whether the Wildcats want it or not), and two weeks to prepare for what might be the most difficult assignment of the season: a visit to No. 14 Iowa State, which beat Kansas State by three points in Ireland.
Then Arizona returns home to face floundering Oklahoma State and faces Brigham Young one week before the Cougars play their rivalry game (against Utah).
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The season’s second half features trips to Houston, Colorado and Cincinnati, plus home dates with Baylor and Kansas and, finally, the Territorial Cup.
The Wildcats will be favored more often than not. And crucially, they don’t play No. 20 Utah or No. 21 Texas Tech.
Put another way: There are wins available — more than enough to lock down a bowl berth and perhaps enough to challenge for a spot in the Big 12 championship.
If the Wildcats cut back on their mistakes.
Remember, ASU wasn’t the team it would become at this point last season. In fact, the Sun Devils needed a fourth quarter field goal to beat Texas State and collect their third non-conference victory.
They were clearly improved.
They obviously had the personnel needed to cause havoc in the Big 12.
But the product was so unfinished at the close of Week 3 that the endgame could not be sketched.
The same is true of the Wildcats, an undefeated work-in-progress playing with nothing to lose and all roads open.
We have seen enough to consider the unexpected possibility that Arizona, of all teams, will emerge from the Big 12 chaos as this year’s Arizona State.
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