California birth rate declines to historic low as women delay childbearing

California’s birth rate has hit a record low, a historic “baby bust” in a state with the world’s fourth largest economy, dipping below the birth rate of 1906, when San Francisco was recovering from the great earthquake that destroyed most of the city, according to the Public Policy Institute of California.

With just 10.2 births per 1,000 population through 2023, the rate has dropped more than half since the World War II baby boom in the late 1940s and ’50s of 24.8, and nearly half since 1991, when the birth rate was 20.

“What is causing the decline in birth rates is honestly not entirely clear,” said Eric McGhee, senior fellow at the PPIC and co-author of a forthcoming paper on the topic. However, “the reality is that birth rates are declining from all over the country.”

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California’s total fertility rate, the average number of children a woman would have in her lifetime, also remains at historic lows — at 1.48, dropping from 2.5 in 2008. Unlike birth rates that provide a broad view of population growth, fertility rates indicate more focused trends on women’s reproductive patterns and potential family size.

Fertility rates are also dropping in every single state. In 2022, the most recent year the PPIC has national numbers, South Dakota had the highest fertility rate and Vermont the lowest. Every state’s fertility rate is now below 2.1, a number considered the “replacement rate” needed for a population to replace itself from one generation to the next.

There are numerous factors contributing to the declines, from economic to social. In California, especially, he said, the drop has been primarily among Latinos having fewer children. The evolution of women’s roles in the family and the workplace has also factored significantly. California birth rates declined during the recession of the early 1990s, and again after the 2008 housing market crash, according to the PPIC.

A new poll conducted by Joint Venture Silicon Valley, a San Jose-based economic think tank, and the Bay Area News Group found that one-third of those surveyed said they are delaying having children because of financial pressures.

Brianna Rodriguez, 27, is one of them. She and her boyfriend are putting off marriage and children because it’s too expensive, especially living here in the Bay Area. The couple is living with her mom and little brother to save money. Her boyfriend, Eduardo Martinez, is a welder, and she works three jobs, including two in merchandising that together earn her about $40,000 a year.

“I’ve always wanted a big family because I grew up in a big family,” she said. “We feel we can’t even do it because we can’t afford the kind of neighborhood we want to live in, the kind of house we want to provide. You don’t feel secure in a job, even if you have one.”

Sharp declines among young adults in their 20s, who are much less likely to get married than they were just 15 years ago, also contribute to the birth rate decline.

“There’s certainly more people who are in the childbearing ages — that’s as late as the early 40s. There’s been a real uptick in birth rates in those age groups,” McGhee said. “But it’s not enough to offset the decline that we’ve seen among women in their 20s.”

Although California has recovered from declining birth rates in the past, mostly through higher birth rates among immigrants, that appears increasingly unlikely as immigration declines dramatically, the PPIC said.

Rodriguez is still dreaming of a family, but doesn’t see it happening anytime soon.

“At this point,” she said, “I’m just going to keep getting more pets.”