The Hotline mailbag publishes weekly. Send questions to [email protected] and include ‘mailbag’ in the subject line. Or hit me on the social media platform X: @WilnerHotline
Some questions have been edited for clarity and brevity.
Back in June 2024, we asked you: “Five years from now, will we have a Pac-12 and a Mountain West? Or just a Pac-12? Or no Pac-12 at all?” Your reply indicated the likelihood of both conferences existing through the end of the decade was 5 percent. Could you please update your prognosis? Thanks. — @NILnotNLI
What are your current odds of Mountain West survival? If the conference does implode, which schools would be of interest and likely to join the Pac-12? — Michael J
Two questions, one topic: Realignment in the western third of the country that doesn’t include the former Pac-12 schools.
Let’s dive in.
At the time of the original question, the Hotline viewed a merger between Washington State and Oregon State and the Mountain West as the most likely outcome, with the resulting conference using the Pac-12’s name. The scheduling partnership for 2024 was in place, and the conferences were mulling merger options.
But as the summer unfolded, it became clear that WSU and OSU wanted no part of a unified entity. Additionally, Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State and San Diego State had become convinced their futures were brighter without the bottom-tier schools in the Mountain West.
By early September 2024, the Pac-12’s raid was churning toward inevitability.
Yes, our projection was wrong. But that was due, in part, to shifting circumstances. Realignment is highly fluid, whether it involves the Big Ten and SEC, or the Pac-12 and Mountain West.
Which brings us to the present and … more projections.
Forecasting the conference structure at the end of the decade is more difficult now that it was 16 months ago, largely because of uncertainty across the broader landscape.
For example, we don’t know the future format of the College Football Playoff. We don’t know if athletes will be declared employees or if the Big Ten will accept private capital. What about a super league?
Those issues will impact strategic decisions up and down the major college food chain, just as the realignment wave that began in July 2021, with Texas and Oklahoma leaving for the SEC, continues to ripple across Division I and impact even the Big Sky and Big West.
And regionally, we don’t know how the twin lawsuits against the Mountain West, filed by the Pac-12 (over poaching penalties) and three departing schools (over exit fees) will play out. Nor does the Hotline have an airtight feel for the state of the Mountain West’s media rights negotiations, although we suspect the conference is close to locking up a deal.
Our best guess on the future of the Pac-12 and Mountain West: Both conferences will exist, side by side, into the early 2030s.
Will both thrive? Probably not.
Will they align on policy issues affecting college sports? Perhaps.
The industry is rapidly bifurcating into the Power Four on one side of the table and everyone else on the other. The rebuilt Pac-12 and restructured Mountain West will compete for wins and talent but ultimately have more similarities than differences.
And both will benefit from the evolving media ecosystem, where two mouths (linear TV and streaming platforms) have a need for content, especially in the 10 p.m. Eastern window.
Given that the Pac-12 has signed both grant-of-rights and media rights deals through the 2030-31 academic year, the conference probably will exist at the turn of the decade. Let’s set the likelihood at 99 percent.
Mountain West survival is less certain — until there’s a media deal, nothing is guaranteed — but also more likely than not. Our forecast: 80-to-85 percent.
For the sake of college athletes across the region, along with fans of the schools and employees of the athletic departments, let’s hope the survival rate for both eventually reaches 100 percent.
Can you recall any other head coach in the regular season winning games against three coaches, Oklahoma State’s Mike Gundy, Penn State’s James Franklin and Oregon State’s Trent Bray, who were fired during the same season? — — Jon J
Oregon has certainly been bad news for coaches in tenuous situations.
The Ducks humiliated Oklahoma State, and Gundy lost his job a few weeks later, and their victory over Penn State sparked the downturn that led to Franklin’s dismissal.
It feels like a stretch to link their victory in the Civil War to Bray’s termination — Oregon State’s other losses played a greater role in the decision — but yes, he counts as one of the three coaches who faced the Ducks and are no longer employed.
There could be more coming, as well.
Wisconsin coach Luke Fickell, whose team visits Eugene this weekend, is on the hottest of seats after back-to-back shutout losses (to Iowa and Ohio State).
Based on a public statement by their athletic director, Chris McIntosh, the Badgers don’t seem ready to move on from Fickell during the season. But that could change if they lose by 50 or 60 points on Saturday.
We don’t see any of Oregon’s other opponents (Iowa, Minnesota, USC or Washington) firing their coaches, although some combination of that quartet could lose their coach to another school.
Minnesota’s PJ Fleck might have his pick of gigs this winter, and Washington’s Jedd Fisch could be a candidate at UCLA, Florida or both.
I asked the Hotline a couple weeks ago to comment on the USC-Notre Dame proposal to move their game to a different location and usurp Big Ten TV partners. Now comes news that USC is against the ‘venture capital’ cash infusion and is feuding with Notre Dame about scheduling. What’s going on in Heritage Hall? — SirTrojan
The Trojans have generated their fair share of news lately, on the field and off. But we don’t see a connection between the issues you mentioned.
The fate of the Notre Dame series, and whether Netflix could air a neutral-site matchup, is a football-specific matter. The Trojans are wary of playing in South Bend in the middle of October every other year because of their Big Ten travel schedule, but we suspect the schools will agree to extend the series.
The “venture capital” matter is unfolding at the highest levels of the university, with both the interim president, Beong-Soo Kim, and the trustees heavily involved.
As the Hotline outlined Thursday in our deep dive, the Trojans have wisely opposed the Big Ten’s plan to accept an infusion of $2.4 billion from an investment fund tied to the University of California’s pension plan in exchange for 10 percent equity in a new revenue-generating arm of the conference.
In fact, USC and Michigan linked arms and blocked the deal, which left commissioner Tony Petitti deeply frustrated, according to sources.
We expect USC to end up on the right side of history on both issues: The private capital deal would have been a colossal strategic mistake impacting Big Ten schools for decades to come; and the Notre Dame series (eventually) will be extended far into the future with enough tweaks to satisfy the Trojans.
What do you make of UCLA’s recent resurgence? Are the Bruins legitimate, or are they a Jekyll and Hyde team? — @MrEd315
It’s the post-guillotine bounce that materializes so often when underachieving teams fire their head coach.
The Bruins (3-4) had far better personnel than their performance indicated early in the season. After coach DeShaun Foster and offensive coordinator Tino Sunseri were dismissed — don’t ignore Sunseri’s role in the awful start — the talent was able to blossom.
The Bruins have won three of four games under interim coach Tim Skipper, but the Hotline isn’t prepared to declare them a contender in the Big Ten. After all, their three wins have come against Penn State, Michigan State and Maryland, which have a combined record of 1-11 in conference play.
UCLA’s remaining schedule is arduous, with three road games (Indiana, Ohio State and USC) and two home games (Nebraska and Washington).
If Skipper secures a bowl berth for the Bruins — three more victories are required — he will have done stupendous work.
That doesn’t mean he should be given the permanent position, however. UCLA needs to hire a proven winner with a substantial sample size.
Since you are high on Nick Rolovich being the next head coach at Oregon State, is his lawsuit settled with Washington State? And what was the outcome? — @jimmy0726
Rolovich lost the lawsuit against Washington State over his termination, in the fall of 2021, for failing to comply with the state’s COVID vaccine mandate.
He used the religious exemption as the basis for his claim, but a federal judge ruled earlier this year that Rolovich “frequently expressed secular concerns about the COVID-19 vaccine to friends, family members and coworkers. In the thousands of pages of discovery, Plaintiff does not invoke a religious objection to the vaccine. This alone is a basis for denying Plaintiff’s claimed religious objection.”
The Hotline was extremely critical of Rolovich’s position and decisions at the time. But the vaccine politics are in the past and should not prevent him from becoming a head coach in the present or future.
The Beavers could do worse — much, much worse — than appointing Rolovich to take charge of the floundering program.
He knows the recruiting landscape in the Pacific Northwest, is a proven winner at Oregon State’s competitive level and is a sharp offensive mind.
Is UNLV back in play to join the Pac-12 in 2026 after circumstances change in litigation? — @ColAthAdv_Will
Not in our view. In fact, the Hotline doesn’t envision the Pac-12 expanding again before the new conference debuts in July 2026. We fully expect eight schools for football and nine for basketball.
There are several issues with the Rebels, starting with the legal affairs.
The poaching penalty and exit fee lawsuits filed against the Mountain West — in tandem, they have more than $100 million at stake — are unlikely to be resolved in the coming months,
Also, UNLV has given every indication that it prefers the Mountain West, which offers a wider path to success (albeit against lesser competition).
Another factor: The Rebels would not materially alter the value of the Pac-12’s media rights. As one source with expertise in the space told the Hotline recently: The conference’s media partners “would not pay an extra dime” for UNLV.
The Pac-12 doesn’t need the Rebels, and the Rebels don’t want the Pac-12.
Those dynamics could shift in the future, and realignment is always full of surprises. But the Pac-12 will almost assuredly ramp up next summer without UNLV.
Whatever happened to the Deloitte clearinghouse? Has anybody organized a search party? — @TerryTerry79
You’re referring to the recently-formed College Sports Commission (CSC), the entity created in the wake of the House v NCAA lawsuit settlement to oversee revenue sharing and NIL deals.
The CSC uses a technology platform called NIL Go, which was developed by Deloitte, to assess fair-market-value for deals between athletes and businesses. (Those deals are unrelated to the revenue-sharing contracts between athletes and their schools.)
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The CSC began operations over the summer and has processed thousands of NIL contracts. Whether it remains in business over the long haul is another matter entirely.
Why? Because many believe it’s illegal — that any entity empowered to define market value is inherently anti-competitive.
Only the market can define the market, according to many sports law experts.
In our view, the absence of news around the CSC and NIL Go is a positive development.
It suggests the technology is working and no lawsuits have been filed, yet.
With the new Pac 12 potentially being a better basketball league than its previous version, is Saint Mary’s on deck to create a 10-team round-robin structure? — @SheckyVBismarck
The Hotline has no reason whatsoever to believe the Gaels are on the brink of joining the conference as the 10th basketball school.
Our understanding, based on conversations throughout the summer and fall, is that Saint Mary’s is not a candidate at this point and the rebuilt Pac-12 will move forward with nine basketball schools and a 16-game round-robin schedule.
Remember, the NCAA has increased the maximum number of regular-season games, from 31 to 32. The Pac-12’s plan leaves 50 percent of the schedule to non-conference competition, allowing the schools to handcraft the collection of opponents that maximizes NET rankings and NCAA Tournament at-large access.
Saint Mary’s is a terrific program with a first-rate coach in Randy Bennett. But it doesn’t drive media value and hardly qualifies as a must-have school for the Pac-12, just as UNLV is not a must-have school.
If the Gaels are interested in playing Gonzaga annually, either in home-and-home fashion or on neutral courts across the region, the Pac-12 would undoubtedly support the move. As would the Hotline.
Gonzaga-Saint Mary’s matchups, much like Arizona-UCLA duels, are good for college basketball in the West.
On a scale of 1-to-10, how much of a Cal fan is Jon Wilner and why is it a 10? –@HoodxBear
I am not a fan of any team and would suggest many Cal supporters believe I am, in fact, a hater.
Of course, the same could be true for fans across the former Pac-12 footprint, particularly in the Pacific Northwest, where Washington fans are convinced I love Oregon and Oregon fans believe I despise the Ducks and favor the Huskies.
All that’s just fine. The Hotline roots for running plays, completed passes, speedy replay reviews and three-hour games — and that’s the extent of our agenda. Otherwise, we call ’em like we see ’em.
If the perception across the region is that I hate every school, the reality is that I hate no school. Which is true.
Thanks for the question.
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