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The five California Republicans who could lose their seats in Congress if Prop 50 passes

October 24, 2025
The five California Republicans who could lose their seats in Congress if Prop 50 passes

Voters around the country will be watching the results on Nov. 4 of Proposition 50, a measure put on California’s statewide ballot by Gov. Gavin Newsom and Sacramento Democrats.

If it passes, it would redraw House districts in California to benefit Democrats in the 2026, 2028 and 2030 elections. Supporters say it is needed to offset President Trump’s push to redraw House districts in Texas and other Republican states heading into the 2026 elections, when control of Congress will be up for grabs. Opponents call it a “power grab” by Sacramento Democrats that betrays the state’s voter approved system of having districts drawn by an independent, politically balanced committee.

Currently only nine of California’s 52 House members are Republicans. If Prop 50 passes, five will see their districts redrawn in ways that will include more registered Democrats, putting their re-elections at grave risk next November. The most at-risk Republicans are:

Darrell Issa

House Speaker Mike Johnson, left, takes a photo with Rep. Darrell Issa, a San Diego County Republican, during the first session of the 119th Congress ahead of the speaker vote in the House chamber of the Capitol in Washington, D.C., on Jan. 3, 2025. (ROBERTO SCHMIDT / AFP) 

Issa, 71, currently represents California’s 48th congressional district in eastern San Diego County. A Cleveland native who dropped out of high school to join the Army, in the 1980s, he co-founded a car alarm company and made millions. He moved to Southern California and ran for office in 1998, losing the Republican primary to Matt Fong to take on then-Sen. Barbara Boxer. He was first elected to Congress in 2000, and after expanding his investments into real estate, now is one of the richest members of Congress with a net worth estimated at $460 million.

Issa is a strong supporter of President Trump. He is anti-abortion, has favored lowering taxes on business and voted to overturn the Affordable Care Act. In 2021, after Trump supporters broke into the U.S. Capitol building, Issa voted to reject the certification of Pennsylvania’s electoral votes. In 2003, he donated $1.6 million to the successful campaign to recall Gov. Gray Davis, and was considered as a potential candidate for governor. But after Arnold Schwarzenegger entered the race he did not enter.

Doug LaMalfa

Rep. Doug LaMalfa answers a question during a town hall meeting on Monday, Aug. 11, 2025, in Chico, California. (Hector Amezcua/The Sacramento Bee/TNS) 

LaMalfa, 65, is a classic rural California Republican. Since 2012 he has represented the 1st congressional district, which includes Butte, Colusa, Glenn, Lassen, Modoc, Shasta, Siskiyou, Sutter, Tehama, and Yuba counties in northern and northeast California. A fourth-generation rice farmer, he grew up in Oroville, and won seats in the state Assembly and state Senate between 2002 and 2012.

LaMalfa has been a strong supporter of farmers and ranchers, calling for fewer environmental regulations, more water projects, and opposing the reintroduction of wolves in Northern California. He has said the Book of Genesis disproves climate change. LaMalfa also has voted to loosen gun laws, and opposes abortion and same sex marriage. He has advocated posting the Ten Commandments in public schools. A strong supporter of President Trump, in 2021, he voted to reject the certification of Arizona’s and Pennsylvania’s electoral votes in the 2020 presidential election.

David Valadao

Rep. David Valadao photographed on Oct. 21, 2022, in Hanford, California. Valadao, a dairy farmer, says he is running for reelection so he can continue to fight for water and resources for the Central Valley. (Irfan Khan/Los Angeles Times/TNS) 

Valadao, 48, has vexed Democrats for years. A Central Valley dairy farmer from Hanford, he represents California’s 22nd congressional district, which stretches across Kings, Kern and Tulare counties, including parts of Bakersfield. The areas he represents have elected Democrats to Congress and have voted for Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton for president.

But since his first victory in 2012, Valadao has continued to win re-election with his low-key style. He angered many Republicans when he was one of only 10 GOP House members to vote to impeach President Trump in 2021 after the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol. Despite Democrats spending tens of millions of dollars to defeat him, he has only lost re-election once, in 2018, to Democrat T.J. Cox, but he was re-elected in 2020.

A moderate on many issues, Valadao has supported same-sex marriage, increasing veterans benefits and immigration reform, including granting citizenship to children whose parents brought them in the country illegally. He is fluent in Spanish and Portuguese.

Kevin Kiley

Kevin Kiley answers a question during the California Recall Debate at the Richard Nixon Presidential Library and Museum in Yorba Linda on Wednesday, Aug. 4, 2021. (Photo by Leonard Ortiz, Orange County Register/SCNG) 

Kiley, 40, is the youngest California Republican in Congress. A graduate of Harvard University and Yale Law School, he won election to the state Assembly in 2016 and to the 3rd congressional district in 2022. His scenic district includes Lake Tahoe, Mammoth Lakes, Death Valley and other natural features in eastern California.

Kiley, a strong supporter of charter schools, ran unsuccessfully for governor in 2021 when opponents of Gov. Gavin Newsom attempted a recall. He has been a critic of Republican Speaker Mike Johnson, most recently urging him without success to bring the House back in session to negotiate a solution to the government shutdown, and to pass legislation barring the redrawing of districts in all states except during the usual Census-driven process every 10 years.

Ken Calvert

At least eight Democrats have pulled papers to run against Rep. Ken Calvert, R-Corona, in 2026. While it’s a sign of Democratic enthusiasm heading into the midterm elections, Calvert hasn’t lost reelection since arriving on Capitol Hill during the Clinton administration. (Jose Luis Magana, AP file photo) 

Calvert, 72, is the senior Republican in California’s House delegation, having served in Congress since 1993. A former small business owner, he represents the 41st congressional district, which includes much of Coachella Valley and the Palm Springs area.

Like Valadao, Calvert has fended off strong Democratic challenges in recent elections. He is anti-abortion, supports same-sex marriage, and has championed tax cuts for businesses and the e-Verify system to check the immigration status of workers. In 2021, Calvert voted to reject the certification of Arizona’s and Pennsylvania’s electoral votes. Most recently, he has worked with Gov. Gavin Newsom to try and secure federal disaster funding after the January Southern California wildfires.

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