The Proposition 50 statewide congressional redistricting measure on the Nov. 4 ballot is gaining strong support from California voters who are showing unusual awareness about it for an off-year special election, according to a new poll Thursday.
The Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll completed a week before Election Day found 60% of likely voters in support and 38% opposed to the measure that would temporarily replace California’s independently drawn congressional district maps with new ones that would make five currently represented by Republicans more likely to elect a Democratic candidate.
Opinions were strongly partisan, with 93% of Democrats in favor and 91% of Republicans opposed. Among those who said they already had voted in a state that mailed out ballots to all registered voters Oct. 6, 67% said they’d voted to approve Proposition 50 and 33% said they’d voted against it.
“The results suggest that Democrats have succeeded in framing the debate surrounding the proposition around support or opposition to President Trump and national Republicans, rather than about voters’ more general preference for nonpartisan redistricting,” said Berkeley IGS Studies co-director Eric Schickler.
The poll findings are similar to those of other recent polls that also show California voters favoring the measure, which requires a simple majority to pass. A Public Policy Institute of California poll Oct. 28 found 56% in support and 43% opposed.
The Berkeley IGS poll found that voters have “extraordinarily high” awareness of the measure, with 71% of likely voters saying they had heard a great deal about it. Supporters, who have heavily outraised opponents, have spent heavily on ads, including during the World Series featuring the Los Angeles Dodgers. Ads have featured Democratic Party stars such as former President Barack Obama.
But the Berkeley IGS poll also found that while those who are voting early by mail are strongly supporting the measure, those holding out to cast ballots on Election Day are opposed. Among those intending to vote in person on Election Day, 70% intend to vote ‘no,’ while only 28% said they would vote ‘yes.’
