UCLA and USC enter the postseason as national championship contenders. After that, the outlook turns a bit bleak for the western third of the country.
If 11 teams from the Mountain and Pacific time zones participate in the NCAA Tournament when the field is announced Sunday, it’s possible that nine could lose in the first round. None of them — aside from the Bruins and Trojans, of course — would be favored to reach the Sweet 16.
So, it’s championship aspirations or wishful thinking for the region in an event offering financial rewards for the first time based on selection and advancement.
Stanford won the 2021 NCAA title with Arizona as the runner-up when both were in the Pac-12. Now, it’s former Pac-12 teams carrying the expectations for the Big Ten and the West.
Top-ranked UCLA and No. 4 USC are projected by ESPN to receive No. 1 seeds on Sunday, along with defending champion South Carolina and Texas.
Both L.A. teams will host sub-regionals (March 21-24), which funnel to the Spokane regional (March 28-31) and, perhaps, a fourth head-to-head meeting in the Final Four (April 4-6 in Tampa).
UCLA clamped down defensively on USC in the Big Ten Tournament title game March 9, winning 72-67. With that, the Bruins (30-2) avenged their only losses of the season. The Trojans took the regular-season series by scores of 71-60 on Feb. 13 and 80-67 on March 1.
USC (28-3) also lost to eighth-ranked Notre Dame in November and at Iowa, on Caitlin Clark’s jersey retirement day, in February.
Both schools hosted sub-regional last spring, as well. The Trojans reached the Elite Eight before losing to Connecticut while UCLA exited in the Sweet 16, falling to LSU.
USC won back-to-back NCAA championships in 1983-84 during the Cheryl Miller era. UCLA made it to the Elite Eight in 1999 and 2018.
ESPN projects Cal (25-8) and Utah (22-8) as No. 8 seeds, the highest positions for any team from the region other than UCLA and USC. If that becomes reality, the Bears and Utes will open the tournament in toss-up games against No. 9 seeds and then, with a win, face a No. 1 seed on its home floor in the second round.
Beyond that, it will take a seeding upset for any Western team to make the second round.
Oregon (19-11) and Washington (19-13) are projected as No. 10 and 11 seeds, respectively, followed by mid-major conference automatic qualifiers Grand Canyon (No. 12), San Diego State (No. 13), Montana State (No. 13), Oregon State (No. 14) and Hawaii (No. 16).
Oregon State (19-15) knocked off West Coast Conference co-champions Gonzaga and Portland to win the conference tournament in its first season as an affiliate member. The Beavers made the Elite Eight in 2024, as members of the Pac-12, before losing to South Carolina. After the season, they lost three starters to the transfer portal.
Even so, coach Scott Rueck showed his prowess in transforming a team that went 4-7 in non-conference play to consecutive victories over 20-win teams when it mattered most.
San Diego State (25-9) upset Mountain West regular-season champion UNLV in the tournament semifinals, then outlasted Wyoming 72-68 in triple overtime Wednesday to clinch an NCAA automatic bid.
In the Big Sky tournament final, regular-season champion Montana State (30-3) beat rival Montana 58-57 on a buzzer-beater.
UNLV, Arizona and Colorado are on the NCAA bubble, according to ESPN. Stanford (16-14) lost in the first round of the ACC tournament and will miss the NCAAs for the first time since 1987, Tara VanDerveer’s second season as coach.
That ends a 36-year participation streak, second longest in the nation behind Tennessee. Cardinal coach Kate Paye’s first season was a disappointment.
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Gonzaga (22-10) will also miss the NCAAs, albeit for the first time in just nine years.
If Grand Canyon (30-2) adds the Western Athletic Conference tournament title to its regular-season crown, the Lopes will make their March Madness debut. (The WAC tournament concludes Saturday in Las Vegas.)
The Big West Tournament will also finish Saturday with Hawaii (22-8) a slight favorite.
The WBIT tournament will feature a 32-team field with expenses paid by the NCAA. Another 48 teams will be selected for the WNIT. So additional schools from the West will get a chance for postseason experience.
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